Although I usually don’t do too badly predicting the Oscar winners, my track record prognosticating the nominees is… a bit shaky. Beyond some solid bets, it’s anyone’s best guess as to who will round out most of the categories. And there are always at least a couple shockers on nomination morning. That’s what makes it fun!
Below, I’ve outlined my final predictions for this year’s nominees in the major categories, plus the screenplay, animation, foreign language, and documentary categories. Nominations are announced January 22.
Lists are ranked by how likely I think each person/film is to get nominated (not necessarily win).
Best Picture
A Star is Born
Roma
Green Book
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
I will be shocked if any of the first seven films on this list don’t get a nomination. The last two are more vulnerable, but if the Academy sticks with its pattern of having nine Best Picture nominees, I don’t think there are many other really solid bets.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay – Vice
This is a weird category? Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) is also a strong possibility, but did get snubbed by the DGA. Barry Jenkins, who on paper should be a shoe-in has been pretty absent from nominations all awards season. There’s no one else I can really see sneaking in.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Christian Bale – Vice
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
My greatest (possibly futile) hope for this awards season is that Hawke lands himself a nomination. And he’s remained a steady dark horse presence throughout the season, so it might actually happen. Right now his biggest competition for the fifth slot is BlacKkKlansman’s John David Washington, and I could really see it going either way.
Best Actress
Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Glenn Close – The Wife
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Nicole Kidman – Destroyer
Again, it seems like there are two people fighting for one spot: Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns, and Kidman. (Yalitza Aparicio from Roma – my personal favourite in this category – also has an outside chance.) Oscar loves recognizing A-list actresses in semi-obscure films, which is why I think Kidman has the slight edge.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Ali and Grant are pretty much locks at this point, and Driver, Elliott, Chalamet, and Sam Rockwell are the four contenders for the last three spots. Elliott’s nomination should be a given, but his surprising snub at the Golden Globes makes me think it’s possible he could go the way of Albert Brooks in Drive (i.e. veteran actor considered nearly a lock to WIN the Oscar, gets snubbed by a major precursor, and then doesn’t even get nominated). Maybe it’s foolish to bet against last year’s winner (Rockwell), but I also can’t really see anyone else from this line-up missing.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Claire Foy – First Man
Regina King’s snub by SAG makes me fear for her chances of winning, but I think the Academy will diverge from SAG here and still nominate her. I’m going with the Globes line-up.
Best Original Screenplay
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Vice
Eighth Grade
Is my Eighth Grade prediction just wishful thinking? Quite possibly. However, there is an open spot with no clear fifth shoe-in. Fingers crossed.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
A Star is Born
This is a sort of low-profile category this year, so there’s room for a wildcard to sneak in (Leave No Trace, The Death of Stalin, Wildlife, etc.) This one is hard to predict.
Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Fireworks
There’s no way Spider-Verse isn’t winning, right?
Best Foreign Language Film
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Capernaum
Never Look Away
I always find this category tricky, even when there are only nine shortlist options to choose from. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the shortlist get nominated and the only ones I’d be shocked to see snubbed are Roma and Cold War.
Best Documentary
Won’t You Be My Neighbour
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
Three Identical Strangers
This category is always a weird balance of very crowd-pleasing fare (think previous winners 20 Feet From Stardom and Searching for Sugar Man) and more “serious” entries and this year’s 15-film shortlist is divided almost right down the middle between the two options. There were quite a few more “accessible” docs that got a lot of attention this year (Won’t You Be My Neighbour, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, RBG, Shirkers, and Hale County This Morning This Evening) and while I don’t think they’ll all make the final cut, I can’t see the Academy turning down most of its more high-profile options for this category.
Times Like Those 