With the Venice Film Festival in full swing and the Toronto International Film Festival officially kicking off on Thursday, now seemed as good a time as any to update my Oscar predictions. The outcome of these festivals (along with the assortment of other festivals this fall) will probably help to shape the Oscar race considerably. Past Best Picture winners like The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire picked up considerable traction at the fall festivals, as did last year’s The Artist (though it made its first dent at Cannes). I imagine I’ll probably be altering these predictions in a couple of weeks, but here are my pre-TIFF guesses:
Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
Other Possibilities: Moonrise Kingdom, Anna Karenina, Cloud Atlas, Hyde Park on Hudson, Killing Them Softly, The Silver Linings Playbook, Amour
Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Other Possibilities: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Michael Haneke (Amour), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), David O. Russell (The Silver Linings Playbook), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom), Andrew Dominik (Killing Them Softly)
Actor
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Other Possibilities: Clint Eastwood (The Trouble With the Curve), Denzel Washington (Flight), Bradley Cooper (The Silver Linings Playbook)
Actress
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed
Other Possibilities: Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Meryl Streep (Hope Springs), Naomi Watts (The Impossible), Kristen Wiig (Imogene), Amy Adams (The Trouble With the Curve), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Won’t Back Down)
Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
David Straitharn, Lincoln
Other Possibilities: Bryan Cranston (Argo), Woody Harrelson (Seven Psychopaths), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Don Cheadle (Flight), Christopher Walken (Seven Psychopaths), Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Joel Edgerton (Zero Dark Thirty), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Viola Davis, Won’t Back Down
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Other Options: Laura Dern (The Master), Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Vanessa Redgrave (A Song For Marion), Annette Bening (Imogene), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Sally Field (Lincoln)