So this is it. In less than 48 hours, the nominations for the 84th Academy Awards will be announced. It’s been a pretty good race, in my opinion. It seems more unpredictable than the past couple of years, which is fun. Movies and performances that should been major contenders have kind of fallen by the wayside, while unexpected dark horses have emerged. I’m still conflicted about a couple of the acting categories, and I feel like there are definitely going to be some surprises on Tuesday morning. Here are my final FULL predictions for the nominees (the individual category pages, which include rankings, have also been updated).
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
I’m predicting that the Academy will nominate these seven films, though I could definitely see War Horse potentially missing the cut. The other six are pretty much sure bets. If the Academy wants to nominate more than seven (or snubs War Horse), then The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo would be my next guess, since it does seem to be picking up steam. The Tree of Life is another viable contender, but ultimately, I don’t think either film will make it in.
Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
In some ways, this has been one of the least predictable categories. Hazanavicius, Scorsese, and Payne are obvious choices, but what about the other two slots? Spielberg should be a shoe-in for the visually grand War Horse, but what if the Academy snubs it for Best Picture. And what about that fifth slot? Bennett Miller for Moneyball seems like a solid choice, but his support really hasn’t been strong this awards season (he hasn’t gotten any major directing nominations this year). Similarly, Terrence Malick would be a very deserving nominee, but The Tree of Life seems too “out there” for the Academy (and if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination, could he still get in?). That’s why I’m going with Woody Allen. His film was an unexpected hit, he got the DGA and Golden Globe noms, and everyone loves Woody, right?
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
This is one of those categories that seem like they’re all sewn up. But while I am predicting Fassbender, I also wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him miss out on a nomination thanks to his controversial, small film. (Despite what some people are saying about Leo, I think he’s locked.) I just can’t come up with a compelling enough alternative to switch Fassbender out for. Gary Oldman would be the most likely replacement, I suppose, but aside from the BAFTA nomination, he really doesn’t have much momentum. Gosling, Birchir, and Shannon are all vaguely possible. I say Fassbender’s in, but there could definitely be an upset here.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
These category appears to be a little bit more cut and dry. Sure, Close or even Swinton could miss out in favour of Charlize Theron or Rooney Mara, but I don’t really see that happening.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
We’ve got our winner already in this category, it’s just a matter of figuring out who the other nominees will be. Branagh is in, and Brooks and Hill look like pretty safe bets (but Brooks did miss out on that SAG nomination…). Nick Nolte is the most obvious fifth pick, but while lots of people like the performance, it doesn’t seem like he’s exactly taking this Oscar season by storm. I still think Max von Sydow could sneak in as a surprise, but he’s been almost completely absent this awards season (just like his film). Even Stanley Tucci had some precursor support when he got nominated for a similarly disliked prestige picture. Hammer, Oswalt, Mortensen, and Serkis have at least received a bit of precursor support, but I can’t really see any of those happening. What about Ben Kingsley? At least his film has some traction. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here, but for now, I’ll go with the “obvious” picks.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
I’ve probably agonized over this category the most. Spencer is the only sure bet. Bejo and Chastain are quite likely. But I could see any combination of McTeer, Woodley, and Melissa McCarthy getting in for the last two spots. No matter who misses out, it will be surprising (to me, at least). I know a lot of people think Woodley will miss out because she didn’t get a SAG nomination (or a BAFTA nom), and that is very possible. The same kind of thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. But I’m sticking with her (barely). Maybe it’s more wishful thinking on my part, but it just seems like the right film and the right role to get a young actress nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult
I’m not sure if so many comedies can get in, but the WGA went solid comedies in this category, too. And these were some of the best original screenplays of the year, so why not recognize them accordingly? Margin Call is definitely a possible spoiler, though.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The last couple of spots are murky, and The Ides of March or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could easily get in over Hugo or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Cinematography
The Artist
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Art Direction
The Artist
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
War Horse
Visual Effects
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Costumes
Albert Nobbs
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week With Marilyn
Make-Up
The Green Lantern
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
J. Edgar
Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Sound Editing
Captain America: The First Aveger
Drive
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Sound Mixing
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Original Score
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Original Song
“Lay Down Your Head”, Albert Nobbs
“Star-Spangled Man”, Captain America
“Hello Hello”, Gnomeo & Juliet
“The Living Proof”, The Help
“Life’s a Happy Song”, The Muppets
Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
Happy Feet 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Winnie the Pooh
Times Like Those 