FIRST Oscar Predictions: May 2012

The past couple of years, I’ve posted ultra-early Oscar predictions (usually in March). I guess I was slacking a bit this year, but here is my first round of predictions.

If you’d like to see how my early stabs in the dark panned out in previous years, you can check them out here.

Best Picture

Amour

Anna Karenina

Argo

The Dark Knight Rises

Django Unchained

The Hobbit

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Other Possibilities: Moonrise Kingdom, The Great Gatsby, Inside Lllewyn Davis, Hyde Park on Hudson, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Zero Dark Thirty, Killing Them Softly, The Silver Lining Playbook, Gravity, Trouble With the Curve, The Place Beyond the Pines, Brave, Gangster Squad, Lawless, Six Sessions, Rust and Bone, Prometheus, Seven Psychopaths

 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Michael Haneke, Amour

Peter Jackson, The Hobbit

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln

Other Possibilities: Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis), David O. Russell (The Silver Lining Playbook), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom), Andrew Dominik (Killing Them Softly), Baz Luhrman (The Great Gatsby), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Ben Affleck (Argo), Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson), David Cronenberg (Cosmopolis), Ridley Scott (Prometheus)

 

Best Actor

Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve

This movie sounds like a crowd-pleasing heartstring-tugger, and also a great acting showcase.

John Hawkes, Six Sessions

Hawkes received massive buzz at Sundance for Six Sessions (then known as The Surrogate). He’s an actor whose had a huge breakthrough recently and has been making very smart role choices. I strongly think he will get his second nomination this year.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

I’m not sure how the Lead/Supporting split will go with Hoffman and Phoenix (I’ve seen it predicted both ways), but I imagine they’ll both be nominated. It’s about time for another PSH nomination, right?

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

If there’s one nomination I am almost positive will happen this year, this is it. Unless this turns out to be J. Edgar or something, it’ll happen. Not sure if DDL will get a third Oscar so quickly, but he’ll almost certainly be nominated.

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

I personally don’t think this movie will have the awards season sweep that a lot of people seem to be predicting (it sounds more Iron Lady than King’s Speech, to me), but it seems pretty likely that Bill Murray will be nominated for Best Actor. He might even win his first one.

Other Possibilities: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Great Gatsby), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines), Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly), Ryan Gosling (Gangster Squad),

 

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Trouble With the Curve

Adams has three Supporting Actress nominations under her belt already, and this father/daughter drama could get her a Lead Actress nom. The Academy clearly loves her, so between this and The Master (which I am currently predicting her for, as well), it seems fairly likely she’ll get nominated again this year.

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Cotillard made big waves at Cannes this year for her apparently raw performance in this Jacques Audiard drama. It is a French-language performance, though, which could be a tough sell to the Academy.

Helen Hunt, Six Sessions

Since winning her Oscar for As Good as It Gets, Helen Hunt’s career hasn’t exactly been stellar. However, this Sundance hit could be the one to turn it around for her. John Hawkes might overshadow her, since it is his character’s story, but who knows?

Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

On paper, this sounds like a good bet. It’s the adaptation of a beloved classic novel directed by Joe Wright and starring Keira Knightley. That formula worked very well for Knightley with Pride & Prejudice. We’ll have to wait and see if this one works quite as well, though.

Elizabeth Olsen, Liberal Arts

Olsen established herself as a truly talented young actress with Martha Marcy May Marlene last year. And while Liberal Arts looks considerably lighter, she received raves at Sundance, with some critics calling it a star-making turn. Not sure if this is a lead or supporting performance, though.

Other Possibilities: Kristen Wiig (Imogene), Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson), Viola Davis (Won’t Back Down), Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed), Mia Wasikowska (Stoker), Maggie Smith (Qaurtet), Abbie Cornish (The Girl), Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)

 

Best Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper, The Place Beyond the Pines

Maybe it’s wishful thinking or maybe it’s a hunch, but I have a feeling that Bradley Cooper will get serious Oscar consideration this year. I don’t know if the Academy would nominate him in the lead category yet (especially when it’s shaping up to be so competitive this year), but if this is a meaty role and he does it well, this could be the perfect “welcome to the club” nomination for him.

Bryan Cranston, Argo

Affleck has had luck getting his supporting players nominated in the past. There are plenty of possible acting nominations for this film, but Cranston seems to have the right combination of critical respect (for his excellent work on Breaking Bad) and relevance (his many recent supporting roles) to maybe get some Oscar recognition, if the role is good.

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

DiCaprio hasn’t been on the best terms with the Academy recently, and while I don’t think this nomination is a lock by any means, it seems like a pretty good bet. Tarantino always writes fascinating characters, and it should be interesting to see how DiCaprio does with that style.

Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths

Admittedly, I’m at a bit of a loss with this category. Apparently, Harrelson has a very good part in Seven Psychopaths, and he’s had a few good years, so it could happen.

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Joaquin is back, and I think he’ll pick up right where he left off. And while a three-minute clip is hardly enough to go from, he looks fantastic in this movie.

Other Possibilities: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), David Straitharn (Lincoln), Robert De Niro (The Silver Lining Playbook), Justin Timberlake (Inside Llewyn Davis), Guy Pearce (Lawless), Tom Hardy (Lawless), Josh Brolin (Gangster Squad), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Lincoln), Sam Rockwell (Seven Psychopaths)

 

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

I have no idea what Adams’ or Dern’s parts are like (and maybe I’m just way too excited about The Master), but I could see both of them getting nominated. After all, if there’s a category where that could happen, it’s Supporting Actress (The Help! The Fighter! Up in the Air! Doubt! Two of which involved Amy Adams…)

Laura Dern, The Master

Dern has had a bit of a comeback with her work on the TV show Enlightened, and if her part is good, she could receive her first Oscar nomination is twenty years.

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Maybe I’m still sore about Hooper beating Fincher two years back, but for me, Les Miserables just has the faint scent of disaster. Now, if that turns out to be true, that doesn’t mean it’ll get shut out by the Oscars (hey, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Lovely Bones!). Hathaway seems like most likely candidate for a nomination.

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

I’m not sure if this movie will be Oscar’s thing, but Jennifer Lawrence is too big of a force to ignore right now. The Academy voters helped launch her by nominating her for Winter’s Bone, so they’ll probably want to follow that up with another nomination sometime soon.

Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson

Williams has been turning out fantastic, under-recognized work for many years. Maybe this glossy biopic will be what it takes to get her some attention. Playing Eleanor Roosevelt certainly can’t hurt.

Other Possibilities: Vanessa Redgrave (Song for Marion), Jessica Chastain (Lawless), Reece Witherspoon (Mud), Gemma Arterton (Song for Marion), Sally Field (Lincoln), Kerry Washington (Django Unchained), Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jacki Weaver (The Silver Lining Playbook)

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Movie Trailer/Poster Round-Up

As we sift through a cinematically awful summer, at least the studio execs are giving us something to get excited about. Forget Knight and Day and Salt – all the good stuff’s coming out in the last four months of the year. Here’s a look at some recently released trailers and movie posters that have me excited.

**And as a side-note, happy 100th post to me! I could also talk about how I’m approaching my 1-year blog anniversary, but let’s just get back to the movies…**

The Social Network (October 1)

Better known as “the Facebook movie”, David Fincher’s The Social Network (based on Ben Mezrich’s The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook, a Tale of Sex, Money, Genius and Betrayal) is making waves for its ultra-current subject matter. I love the first poster that they’ve released (the famous Facebook bar is great, and the photo and font are bold), and hopefully this means that a trailer is right around the corner.

Somewhere (December 22)

As I saw someone mention online, this trailer for Sofia Coppola’s Somewhere makes it look as though she’s halved the ages of her protagonists from Lost in Translation and made a rather similar movie. But by the looks of this gorgeous trailer, that’s not a bad thing at all. Even though Marie Antoinette was considered a bit of a flop (I never saw it), here’s hoping that Somewhere lives up to Coppola’s potential.

Never Let Me Go (October 1)

October 1 is shaping up to be a good day for Times Likes Those favourite Andrew Garfield (who also co-stars in The Social Network), and his work here in Never Let Me Go looks quite promising. I’ve heard about the major plot point that the trailer for Never Let Me Go alludes to, and without giving it away for those who wish to go in blind, it sounds like it’ll be a very interesting movie.

The American (September 1)

I already wrote about the trailer, which was released a few weeks ago, but this striking vintage-inspired poster for Anton Corbijn’s The American is certainly worth mentioning.

Conviction (October 15)

Formerly titled Betty Anne Waters (why did they switch to such an anonymous title?), this movie looks like Oscar bait epitomized (and it reminds me of a certain viral spoof). But nonetheless, with Sam Rockwell on board (in a role that looks like it could garner some serious awards consideration), and Juliette Lewis along for the ride, I’m intrigued.

Favourite Performances of the Decade: Part 5

Here’s a wrap-up to my Favourite Performances of the Decade series. I may edit the five posts occasionally if I see a performance that’s deserving of a spot, but I want to keep my list to 25.

Colin Firth – A Single Man (2009)

In Tom Ford’s visually lush debut film, Firth plays George, a man reeling from the sudden death of his partner, Jim (Matthew Goode). Firth takes this difficult role on with all of the class and poise that you would expect from the charming Brit. Yet there’s also a profoundly moving undercurrent to his portrayal of a man who’s trying to desperately keep his facade intact while contemplating suicide. Firth’s performance may be subdued, but it’s the nuances in his body language and inflections that give away the deep sense of grief that George is experiencing. For me, it was the best performance of 2009.

Carey Mulligan – An Education (2009)

Audrey Hepburn comparisons ran rampant around the release of 2009’s An Education, but I think that it’s best to let Mulligan’s vivacious performance speak for itself. As a confident young woman who finds that she doesn’t know herself nearly as well as she thought, Mulligan is charming, witty, intelligent, and vulnerable all at once, and she hits the perfect emotion for every scene. Her Jenny is a joy to watch, and your eye is drawn to Mulligan during every moment that she is on screen. It’s rare to find this magnetic of a performance from such a relatively unknown young actor.

Keira Knightley – Pride & Prejudice (2005)

Keira Knightley has cemented her status as the queen of the period piece (think Atonement, Silk, The Duchess, King Arthur), but her most vibrant performance to date comes in Joe Wright’s adaptation of Pride & Prejudice. As heroine Elizabeth Bennett, Knightley brings a refreshing sense of modernity to the feisty role.

Peter Sarsgaard – Shattered Glass (2003)

Though usually relegated to supporting roles, Peter Sarsgaard (on the right side of the above photo) has proven himself to be one of the most diverse working actors. The character of Chuck Lane in Shattered Glass is a departure from some of the more troubled characters that Sarsgaard has taken on, but he thrives as the driven hard-ass of a newspaper editor, too. He takes what could have been a forgettable supporting role and turns it into a surprisingly gripping tour de force performance. From Chuck’s low-key moments in the newsroom to his inevitable explosions as the film unravels, Sarsgaard is perfect.

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married (2008)

With a showy role in a modest film, Hathaway is both harrowing and hilarious as Kym, a recovering drug addict visiting home for her sister’s wedding. I’d had my doubts about Hathaway’s acting abilities, but this unforgettable performance instantly remedied that.

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4