2012 Emmy Predictions

The 2012 Emmy nominations will be announced tomorrow, so I thought I’d post some last-minute predictions for the major categories. My predictions are ranked in order of who I think is most likely to receive a nomination. (In other words, just because I have something ranked as #1, it doesn’t necessarily mean I think it will end up winning the category.)

Best Comedy Series

1. Modern Family
2. Parks and Recreation
3. 30 Rock
4. The Big Bang Theory
5. Curb Your Enthusiasm
6. Girls

Alternates:

1. New Girl
2. Two and a Half Men
3. Louie

Thoughts: I feel pretty confident in the first three. The Big Bang Theory and Curb Your Enthusiasm seem like reliable bets, given their history at the Emmys. (But are people getting tired of either/both?)The sixth spot is more difficult to predict. Will voters go for the trendy cable buzz of Girls, or the broad network comedy of New Girl? I’m betting the former, especially since there are already a lot of network shows in the mix.

Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
2. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
3. Louis C.K., Louie
4. Don Cheadle, House of Lies
5. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
6. John Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Alternates:

1. Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
2. Aston Kutcher, Two and a Half Men
3. Will Arnett, Up All Night

Thoughts: The first three are basically locked in. Cheadle’s show is very small, but I think he’s respected enough to get in. David and his show have had a strong run with the Emmy’s. But then we have the matter of Two and a Half Men. Will the Emmy’s recognize the reliable veteran of the show (Cryer, who was nominated in the supporting category last year), or its splashy new star (Kutcher)? Or neither? Galecki was nominated last year, so I definitely wouldn’t count him out, either.

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
2. Tina Fey, 30 Rock
3. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
4. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
5. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
6. Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly

Alternates:

1. Laura Dern, Enlightened
2. Laura Linney, The Big C
3. Lena Dunham, Girls

Thoughts: This is a packed category. The first three ladies are in. Deschanel probably has the right combo of star power and a hit show. The next two spots are honestly a toss-up, and I could see any of the above names getting in.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Ty Burrell, Modern Family
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
3. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
4. Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
5. Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
6. Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Alternates:

1. Chris Colfer, Glee
2. Max Greenfield, New Girl

Thoughts: All the Modern Family dudes are in. (Can it be Jesse Tyler Ferguson’s turn to win this year? Please?) I think Offerman will finally get his well-deserved nomination. Sixth spot could go to either Harris or Colfer. I think the fading interest in Glee from both the Emmys and the general population could cost Colfer his nom this year.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
2. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
3. Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
4. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
5. Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
6. Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope

Alternates:

1. Jane Lynch, Glee
2. Maya Rudolph, Up All Night
3. Cheryl Hines, Suburgatory

Thoughts: A bit of a blah category, if you ask me (though I’d love to see Wiig win). The first four are very likely to get in. Betty White always gets nominated for things. I can’t really come up with a compelling sixth name, so I’ll go with veteran actress Leachman. I don’t think Lynch had enough to do this season to get in.

Best Drama Series

1. Mad Men
2. Breaking Bad
3. Game of Thrones
4. Homeland
5. Boardwalk Empire
6. Downton Abbey

Alternates:

1. The Good Wife
2. House
3. Dexter

Thoughts: I feel fairly confident in those six choices. They seem like the hot, critically acclaimed shows right now. However, if the Emmy’s want to include at least one network show, they could go with their beloved Good Wife, or they could send House off with one last nomination.

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series

1. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
2. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
3. Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
4. Damian Lewis, Homeland
5. Hugh Laurie, House
6. Kelsey Grammar, Boss

Alternates:

1. Michael C. Hall, Dexter
2. Timothy Olyphant, Justified
3. Dustin Hoffman, Luck

Thoughts: Hamm and Cranston are obviously in. Buscemi and Lewis are also very likely, I think. Laurie, who has been nominated (and lost) for the last six years in a row will probably be recognized for his final season. (Could he even be a dark horse to win?) Will Michael C. Hall’s own nomination streak end in favour of Grammar’s new show? It’s hard to say, but I’m guessing yes.

Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series

1. Claire Danes, Homeland
2. Juliana Margulies, The Good Wife
3. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
4. Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: SVU
5. Glenn Close, Damages
6. Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Alternates:

1. Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
2. Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
3. Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey

Thoughts: The first three are in, and I say the Emmy is Danes’ to lose. Harigtay has been nominated for the past eight years, so why would she stop being nominated now? (She won back in 2006.) Glenn Close also seems likely. Tough call for the sixth spot. Even though Sedgwick missed out on the nomination last year and Bates got in, I’m going with Sedgwick.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
3. John Slatery, Mad Men
4. Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
5. Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
6. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Alternates:

1. Walton Goggins, Justified
2. Nick Nolte, Luck
3. John Goodman, Damages

Thoughts: First three seem like solid bets. I’d say Esposito is likely. Then it gets tough. This is what we call guessing.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
2. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
3. Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire
4. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
5. Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
6. Rose Byrne, Damages

Alternates:

1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
2. Michelle Forbes, The Killing
3. Angelica Huston, Smash

Thoughts: Well, it seems like there are six spots and seven ladies with a chance at filling them. I could see anyone but Smith or Hendricks missing out, but I’m guessing Gunn right now. I haven’t seen the fourth season of Breaking Bad yet, but based on the first three, she doesn’t really seem Emmy-worthy.

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Emmy Nomination Thoughts

Actress in a Comedy Series

Laura Linney – The Big C

Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

Melissa McCarthy – Mike and Molly

Martha Plimpton – Raising Hope

Tina Fey – 30 Rock

• Obvious Picks: Fey, Falco, Linney
• Snubbed: Lea Michele (but I’m not that sad about it, to be honest. She was grating this season on Glee)
• It’s great to see Poehler nominated for the second year running. I think she could be a darkhorse to win the category.
• Plimpton is great on Raising Hope, and I’m pleasantly surprised by her nomination
• I don’t watch Mike and Molly, but McCarthy seems like the biggest surprise in this category. She was hilarious in Bridesmaids, though, so I’m sure she’s deserving.

Actor in a Comedy Series

Matt Le Blanc – Episodes

Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

Steve Carell – The Office

Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory

Louie C.K. – Louie

Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock

• Obvious Picks: Baldwin, Carell, Parsons
• Snubbed: Matthew Morrison, I guess? (Though I was never sure why he got nominated last year)
• LeBlanc and especially Louie C.K. are slightly surprising since their shows are pretty under-the-radar
• I like that Galecki finally got some recognition, too.
• Since it was his last season on The Office and he’s never won, this will probably be Carell’s year. It’s a bit of a weak year for this category, so he doesn’t have a lot of competition.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Jane Lynch – Glee

Betty White – Hot in Cleveland

Julie Bowen – Modern Family

Kristen Wiig – Saturday Night Live

Jane Krakowski – 30 Rock

Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

• This was a fairly predictable category, but pretty deserving all around (But Hot in Cleveland? Really?)
• I think this category is actually pretty wide open. Lynch wasn’t featured as much on this season of Glee, and they turned her character into more of a caricature. Plus, the show is obviously losing traction with the Emmy’s. No one else has won before, so it could be anyone. Forced to predict a winner, I’d go with Vergara. (I don’t particularly like her on Modern Family, but other people seem to.)

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

John Cryer – Two and a Half Men

Chris Colfer – Glee

Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Modern Family

Ed O’Neill – Modern Family

Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

Ty Burrell – Modern Family

• Obvious Picks: Colfer, Stonestreet, Burrell
• Snubs: Neil Patrick Harris, Nick Offerman (Whyyyy! He’s so good!)
• Ugh, I have some beefs with this category. Are we seriously still nominating Two and a Half Men for stuff? Is this some kind of pity nomination for Cryer because he had to work with Charlie Sheen all of these years? He’s funny on the show, but that show is way past its “prime”, and he already has his Emmy.
• I’m happy to see Ferguson, Stonestreet, and Burrell all get nominated, but I was fine with snubbing O’Neill last year. I really don’t like him on the show.
• If Burrell, Ferguson, or Colfer win, I will be a very happy camper. They are all fantastic.
• I’m going to predict Burrell for the win (wishful thinking?), but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Colfer won.

Comedy Series

Glee

Parks and Recreation

The Office

Modern Family

30 Rock

The Big Bang Theory

• I LOVE that Parks and Recreation got recognized. It was on fire this season.
• I understand nominating Steve Carell, but The Office totally doesn’t deserve this nomination. I didn’t watch much of it this year, but I was extremely unimpressed from what I did see. It’s been on the decline for a few seasons now, and it hit a new low this year IMO.
• Community may have been a bit inconsistent this year, but it would have been a way more deserving nomination. I’m not that surprised that it got snubbed, but I’m sure all the fanboys are fuming right now.

Random thoughts on the other nominations (because I am uncultured and don’t watch any fancy drama shows):

• Big thumbs up to Matt Damon getting nominated for Guest Comedy Actor on 30 Rock. Zach Galifianakis is also deserving for his hosting stint on SNL.
• Mad Men is definitely deserving of its mountain of nominations. All four nominated actors are great!
• It’s great to see Friday Night Lights finally get nominated for Best Drama Series (I’m only at the third season, though, so I can’t say whether or not it deserved its nomination this year. But I’m going to guess yes.) Any chance Kyle Chandler and/or Connie Britton can beat out all the Emmy vets and win for their last season?
• CAT DEELY for Best Reality Host!!! Yay! She was long, long overdue. Jesse Tyler Ferguson (who was a lovely, hilarious judge last night on So You Think You Can Dance) was saying that he hoped she’d be nominated, so I imagine there will be much shoulder-patting on tonight’s show.
• And speaking of SYTYCD, they picked some great routines in the choreography category. Stacey Tookey’s “Mad World”, Tabitha and Napoleon’s “Outta Your Mind”, and Travis Wall’s “Fix You” were all very memorable.
• Nice to see Conan O’Brien and Jimmy Fallon in the variety series category (Colbert, too, but that was less surprising)
• I really enjoy the fact that the “Jack Sparrow” song from SNL is nominated in the Original Music and Lyrics category (as is “I Just Had Sex” and “3-Way”)

My Emmy Wishlist

The Emmy nominees are announced tomorrow, so here’s a list of the eligible shows that I watch, and which nominations I hope they’ll receive. It’s mainly for my own reference, but here goes.

Names marked with an asterisk are the ones who I predict will be nominated.

30 Rock

Outstanding Comedy Series*

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Alec Baldwin*

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series – Tina Fey*

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Jane Krakowski*

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series – Matt Damon (“Double-Edged Sword”)*

The Big Bang Theory

Outstanding Comedy Series*

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Jim Parsons*

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Kaley Cuoco

Community

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Joel McHale

Friday Night Lights

Outstanding Drama Series*

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series – Kyle Chandler*

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series – Connie Britton*

Glee

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Chris Colfer*

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Jane Lynch*

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series – Mike O’Malley – Glee (“Furt”)*

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series – Dot-Marie Jones (“Never Been Kissed”)*

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series – Kristen Chenowith (“Rumours”)*

Mad Men

Outstanding Drama Series*

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series – Jon Hamm*

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series – Elizabeth Moss*

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series – John Slattery*

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series – Christina Hendricks* (She really came on strong this season)

Modern Family

Outstanding Comedy Series*

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Ty Burrell* (I love so many of the guys in this very tough category, but Burrell is my choice to win. His physical comedy is unmatched.)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Jesse Tyler Ferguson

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Eric Stonestreet*

Parks and Recreation

Outstanding Comedy Series*

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series – Amy Poehler*

Outstanding Supporting Actor in Comedy Series – Nick Offerman* (I really, really hope he gets nominated)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Aubrey Plaza

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Will Forte (“Time Capsule”)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Mo Collins (“Harvest Festival”)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Megan Mullally (“Ron and Tammy: Part Two”)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Pamela Reed (“The Bubble”)

Raising Hope

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Garrett Dillahunt

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series – Martha Plimpton

Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Bill Hader (He’s not going to be nominated because this category is overstuffed, but he would be completely deserving for his “Stefon” character alone)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Kristen Wiig*