The 2012 Emmy nominations will be announced tomorrow, so I thought I’d post some last-minute predictions for the major categories. My predictions are ranked in order of who I think is most likely to receive a nomination. (In other words, just because I have something ranked as #1, it doesn’t necessarily mean I think it will end up winning the category.)
Best Comedy Series
- Modern Family
- Parks and Recreation
- 30 Rock
- The Big Bang Theory
- Curb Your Enthusiasm
- Girls
Alternates:
- New Girl
- Two and a Half Men
- Louie
Thoughts: I feel pretty confident in the first three. The Big Bang Theory and Curb Your Enthusiasm seem like reliable bets, given their history at the Emmys. (But are people getting tired of either/both?)The sixth spot is more difficult to predict. Will voters go for the trendy cable buzz of Girls, or the broad network comedy of New Girl? I’m betting the former, especially since there are already a lot of network shows in the mix.
Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
- Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
- Louis C.K., Louie
- Don Cheadle, House of Lies
- Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
- John Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Alternates:
- Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
- Aston Kutcher, Two and a Half Men
- Will Arnett, Up All Night
Thoughts: The first three are basically locked in. Cheadle’s show is very small, but I think he’s respected enough to get in. David and his show have had a strong run with the Emmy’s. But then we have the matter of Two and a Half Men. Will the Emmy’s recognize the reliable veteran of the show (Cryer, who was nominated in the supporting category last year), or its splashy new star (Kutcher)? Or neither? Galecki was nominated last year, so I definitely wouldn’t count him out, either.
Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
- Tina Fey, 30 Rock
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
- Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
- Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
- Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly
Alternates:
- Laura Dern, Enlightened
- Laura Linney, The Big C
- Lena Dunham, Girls
Thoughts: This is a packed category. The first three ladies are in. Deschanel probably has the right combo of star power and a hit show. The next two spots are honestly a toss-up, and I could see any of the above names getting in.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
- Ty Burrell, Modern Family
- Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
- Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
- Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
- Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
- Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Alternates:
- Chris Colfer, Glee
- Max Greenfield, New Girl
Thoughts: All the Modern Family dudes are in. (Can it be Jesse Tyler Ferguson’s turn to win this year? Please?) I think Offerman will finally get his well-deserved nomination. Sixth spot could go to either Harris or Colfer. I think the fading interest in Glee from both the Emmys and the general population could cost Colfer his nom this year.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Julie Bowen, Modern Family
- Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
- Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
- Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
- Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
- Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope
Alternates:
- Jane Lynch, Glee
- Maya Rudolph, Up All Night
- Cheryl Hines, Suburgatory
Thoughts: A bit of a blah category, if you ask me (though I’d love to see Wiig win). The first four are very likely to get in. Betty White always gets nominated for things. I can’t really come up with a compelling sixth name, so I’ll go with veteran actress Leachman. I don’t think Lynch had enough to do this season to get in.
Best Drama Series
- Mad Men
- Breaking Bad
- Game of Thrones
- Homeland
- Boardwalk Empire
- Downton Abbey
Alternates:
- The Good Wife
- House
- Dexter
Thoughts: I feel fairly confident in those six choices. They seem like the hot, critically acclaimed shows right now. However, if the Emmy’s want to include at least one network show, they could go with their beloved Good Wife, or they could send House off with one last nomination.
Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Jon Hamm, Mad Men
- Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
- Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
- Damian Lewis, Homeland
- Hugh Laurie, House
- Kelsey Grammar, Boss
Alternates:
- Michael C. Hall, Dexter
- Timothy Olyphant, Justified
- Dustin Hoffman, Luck
Thoughts: Hamm and Cranston are obviously in. Buscemi and Lewis are also very likely, I think. Laurie, who has been nominated (and lost) for the last six years in a row will probably be recognized for his final season. (Could he even be a dark horse to win?) Will Michael C. Hall’s own nomination streak end in favour of Grammar’s new show? It’s hard to say, but I’m guessing yes.
Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Claire Danes, Homeland
- Juliana Margulies, The Good Wife
- Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
- Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: SVU
- Glenn Close, Damages
- Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Alternates:
- Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
- Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
- Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey
Thoughts: The first three are in, and I say the Emmy is Danes’ to lose. Harigtay has been nominated for the past eight years, so why would she stop being nominated now? (She won back in 2006.) Glenn Close also seems likely. Tough call for the sixth spot. Even though Sedgwick missed out on the nomination last year and Bates got in, I’m going with Sedgwick.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
- Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
- John Slatery, Mad Men
- Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
- Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
- Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Alternates:
- Walton Goggins, Justified
- Nick Nolte, Luck
- John Goodman, Damages
Thoughts: First three seem like solid bets. I’d say Esposito is likely. Then it gets tough. This is what we call guessing.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
- Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
- Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
- Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire
- Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
- Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
- Rose Byrne, Damages
Alternates:
- Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
- Michelle Forbes, The Killing
- Angelica Huston, Smash
Thoughts: Well, it seems like there are six spots and seven ladies with a chance at filling them. I could see anyone but Smith or Hendricks missing out, but I’m guessing Gunn right now. I haven’t seen the fourth season of Breaking Bad yet, but based on the first three, she doesn’t really seem Emmy-worthy.
Times Like Those 