Oscar Predictions 2012: Best Supporting Actress

Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)    

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Orange = good chance of nomination

Yellow = a strong contender

Green = in the mix

Blue = don’t count them out yet

Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup

1. Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Pros: People love The Help, and Spencer is a great comedic presence in a film that sometimes borders on being overly earnest. Aside from Viola Davis, she’s received the most praise.

Cons: She’s not a big name, and comedic performances aren’t often hugely popular at the Oscars. Also: internal vote-splitting with cast-mates?

2. Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

Pros: All of her support from the precursors came as a bit of surprise to me, but The Artist is poised to be the biggest Oscar hit of the year, so I probably should have seen it coming.

Cons: Everything would suggest that she’ll be nominated, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see her miss out in the end, a la Mila Kunis last year.

3. Jessica Chastain (The Help)

Pros: No other actor has had a bigger breakthrough year than Jessica Chastain. And the awards groups seem to have (predictably) honed in on The Help as the performance that they want to celebrate from her.

Cons: Possible vote-splitting between Help ladies and/or other Chastain performances.

4. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)

Pros: It’s said to be a showy role, and critics have latched onto her transformative performance as a woman disguised as a man. As well, Close’s star-power will help bring more attention to the film. Got a Globe and a SAG nomination.

Cons: The film itself isn’t getting rave reviews, or much attention. If Close misses out, could McTeer still get in?

5. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

Pros: Woodley’s steadily been gaining buzz for playing Clooney’s wayward oldest daughter. She got a Critics’ Choice and a Golden Globe nom, and she’s been the winner with a few critics groups, including the NBR.

Cons: She missed out on the SAG, which really is a blow to her chances. The same thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. Is this more of a “liked” performance than an “Oscar” performance?

 

Other Possibilities

6. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)

7. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

8. Carey Mulligan (Shame)

9. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)

 

Awards Tracker

HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts

(Red asterisk denotes win)

+ denotes nomination/win for another performance or combination of performances

 

Past Predictions

December: 1. Spencer, 2. Bejo, 3. Chastain (The Help), 4. Woodley, 5. McTeer

November: 1. Spencer, 2. Woodley, 3. Bullock, 4. Redgrave, 5. Chastain (The Help)

October: 1. Spencer, 2. Bullock, 3. Woodley, 4. Chastain (The Help), 5. Mulligan

September: Bullock, Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Woodley

August: Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)

July: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)

June: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Tomei (The Ides of March), Watson (War Horse)

May: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)

March: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Kristen Scott Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), Watson (War Horse), Wright (Moneyball)

 

Back to 2012 Oscar Predictions page

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2 responses to “Oscar Predictions 2012: Best Supporting Actress

  1. I have always been a fan of your predictions. Started following it since last year. I think you should update all your predictions in light of Golden Globe nominations. Or at least add the Golden Globes to your award tracker.

    • Thanks very much! I’ve been meaning to update them all (I only managed to get to Supporting Actor, since it seemed the most glaringly out of date after the Globe nominations!), and they should be updated within the next day or two 🙂

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