Oscar Predictions 2012: Best Supporting Actress

Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)    

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Orange = good chance of nomination

Yellow = a strong contender

Green = in the mix

Blue = don’t count them out yet

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1. Octavia Spencer (The Help)	Pros: People love The Help, and Spencer is a great comedic presence in a film that sometimes borders on being overly earnest. Aside from Viola Davis, she’s received the most praise. Cons: She’s not a big name, and comedic performances aren’t often hugely popular at the Oscars. Also: internal vote-splitting with cast-mates?
2. Berenice Bejo (The Artist)	Pros: All of her support from the precursors came as a bit of surprise to me, but The Artist is poised to be the biggest Oscar hit of the year, so I probably should have seen it coming. Cons: Everything would suggest that she’ll be nominated, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see her miss out in the end, a la Mila Kunis last year.
3. Jessica Chastain (The Help)	Pros: No other actor has had a bigger breakthrough year than Jessica Chastain. And the awards groups seem to have (predictably) honed in on The Help as the performance that they want to celebrate from her. Cons: Possible vote-splitting between Help ladies and/or other Chastain performances.
4. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)	Pros: It’s said to be a showy role, and critics have latched onto her transformative performance as a woman disguised as a man. As well, Close’s star-power will help bring more attention to the film. Got a Globe and a SAG nomination. Cons: The film itself isn’t getting rave reviews, or much attention. If Close misses out, could McTeer still get in?
5. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)	Pros: Woodley’s steadily been gaining buzz for playing Clooney’s wayward oldest daughter. She got a Critics’ Choice and a Golden Globe nom, and she’s been the winner with a few critics groups, including the NBR. Cons: She missed out on the SAG, which really is a blow to her chances. The same thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. Is this more of a “liked” performance than an “Oscar” performance?

 

Other Possibilities

6. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)

7. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

8. Carey Mulligan (Shame)

9. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)

 

Awards Tracker

HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts

(Red asterisk denotes win)

+ denotes nomination/win for another performance or combination of performances

 

Past Predictions

December: 1. Spencer, 2. Bejo, 3. Chastain (The Help), 4. Woodley, 5. McTeer

November: 1. Spencer, 2. Woodley, 3. Bullock, 4. Redgrave, 5. Chastain (The Help)

October: 1. Spencer, 2. Bullock, 3. Woodley, 4. Chastain (The Help), 5. Mulligan

September: Bullock, Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Woodley

August: Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)

July: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)

June: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Tomei (The Ides of March), Watson (War Horse)

May: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)

March: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Kristen Scott Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), Watson (War Horse), Wright (Moneyball)

 

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