Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Pros: Veteran actor who, despite his old age, has seen a recent resurgence in popularity. Earned raves for his performance as an ailing gay man. Hit all the big precursors.
Cons: None. He’s in, and probably winning.
2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn)
Pros: Vet actor who’s playing a real-life character (and a very colourful one at that). Co-star Williams is generating buzz. Could be something of a “welcome back” nomination for him. He hit the big precursors.
Cons: Though the film received decent reviews, it didn’t get raves. Doesn’t seem to be a box office hit.
3. Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Pros: As his character would claim, it’s hard to argue with the stats. Hill got a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nod, and that combo has an excellent batting average. (I’m making myself groan with these analogies.)
Cons: His odds are great, but the only possibility is that the Academy won’t take him seriously enough to nominate him. Perhaps The Sitter left a bad taste in voters’ mouths (if any of them saw it).
4. Albert Brooks (Drive)
Pros: Drive was met with mixed reactions, but buzz about Brooks’ chances at an Oscar nomination refuses to die down. He’s been the frontrunner early in awards season.
Cons: He missed out on the SAG nominations, and while I don’t think that’s nearly enough to kill his chances at being nominated, it almost guarantees that he won’t win the Oscar.
5. Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Pros: His buzz has refused to die down. He’s been nominated by the BFCA and SAG, and in the past three years, Mila Kunis and Robert Duvall were the only actors to achieve that and then be snubbed by the Academy.
Cons: This would be the film’s only nomination, and that can occasionally cause contenders to fall by the wayside (see: Duvall). He did also miss the Golden Globe nom.
6. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
7. Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
8. Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
9. Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
10. Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
11. John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
December: 1. Plummer, 2. Branagh, 3. Brooks, 4. Hill, 5. Nolte
November: 1. Plummer, 2. Brooks, 3. Branagh, 4. Von Sydow, 5. Hammer
October: 1. Plummer, 2. Mortensen, 3. Von Sydow, 4. Branagh, 5. Hammer
September: Branagh, Brooks, Hammer, Hawkes, Plummer
August: Branagh, Brooks, Hawkes, Hoffman (The Ides of March), Mortensen
July: Branagh, Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen, Waltz
June: Branagh, Hammer, Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen
May: Branagh, Fiennes (Coriolanus), Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen
March: Giamatti (The Ides of March), Hoffman (Moneyball), Mortensen, Penn, Plummer
I see that DRIVE is almost at 35 million dollars and it says that it cost something like 12 million so that would be considered very good box office.
I think Brooks will definitely get nominated and deservedly so. It was a brilliant performance in a very very well reviewed film.
Highly doubt Max Von Sydow will be nominated. He’s a great actor but i’ve read Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and I can tell you that his character doesn’t say anything. Literally, his character is a mute. So I can’t imagine him being nominated.