Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
1. George Clooney (The Descendants)
Pros: People love a good Clooney performance, and he’s receiving raves for this film. Locked.
2. Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Pros: His movie is a big hit with audiences and critics, and everyone seems to love his performance. Pitt’s never won before and some think this could be his year.
Cons: None, really.
3. Jean DuJardin (The Artist)
Pros: The Artist is a pretty much a lock for Best Picture at this point, and DuJardin is hogging a lot of the film’s praise. Buzz is only growing for his apparently hugely charismatic performance.
Cons: DuJardin is not well known in America, and he has a lot of big competition in this category.
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Pros: Many think that DiCaprio is “overdue” to win an Oscar. Despite poor reviews for the film, people liked his performance. Got a BFCA, SAG, and Globe nom, which almost always equals an Oscar nom.
Cons: The poor reception of the film is definitely a setback for his campaign.
5. Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Pros: Fassbender is one of the biggest breakout stars of the year, and he’s earned raves for his performance in the harrowing, NC-17-rated Shame. He’s already received a BFCA and Globe nom.
Cons: Shame seems like the type of movie that critics love (and lots of them have been very vocal in their support of Fassbender), but that could be a tougher sell with the Academy. Fassbender missed out on the SAG nom (but so did Michelle Williams last year, in a similarly bleak film).
6. Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
7. Ryan Gosling (Drive)
8. Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
9. Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
+ denotes nomination/win for another performance or combination of performances
December: 1. Clooney, 2. DuJardin, 3. Pitt, 4. DiCaprio, 5. Fassbender
November: 1. Clooney, 2. DuJardin, 3. Pitt, 4. DiCaprio, 5. Oldman
October: 1. Clooney, 2. DuJardin, 3. Pitt, 4. Pitt, 5. Oldman
September: 1. Clooney, 2. DiCaprio, 3. Oldman, 4. Pitt, 5. DuJardin
August: Clooney, DiCaprio, Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Gosling (The Ides of March), Oldman
July: Clooney, DiCaprio, Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Gosling (The Ides of March), Oldman
June: Clooney, DiCaprio, Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Gosling (The Ides of March), Oldman
May: Clooney, DiCaprio, Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Gosling (The Ides of March), Oldman
March: Banderas (The Skin That I Inhabit), Clooney, Gosling (The Ides of March), Oldman, Pitt (The Tree of Life)
Back to 2012 Oscar Predictions page
Fienes was indeed excellent in Coriolanus. What about JGL for 50/50 or either of the two kids (from War Horse and ELAIC)? Unlikely, but possibilities no?
I’d say all three are longshots, but possible, sure. JGL is respected and getting good reviews, but I don’t know if this is the right type of movie to get him nominated. I’d say Jeremy Irvine is more likely than the ELAIC kid (judging from the bits in the trailer, ELAIC kid seemed affected at times, but if it plays out better in context and the film really hits, I guess he could be a contender). But this category seems to favour established actors, so I don’t see either young actor getting in. (Though there’s always the possibility that the voters could pull a Hailee Steinfeld and stick them into Supporting)