These are my predictions for the winners in every category at this year’s Oscars. I think I’ve seen more of the nominees ahead of time than in past years, which is kind of nice. This is my fourth year doing predictions, and I’ve always gotten at least half of the winners right, so let’s see if I can keep it going this year.
Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
I really want to believe that the game isn’t over for The Social Network, but I also can’t ignore the overwhelming amount of buzz for the admittedly Oscar-friendly King’s Speech.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Who would have guessed that Director would be such an interesting category? From the original nominations (the Nolan stub still stings) right down to the wire, it’s unpredictable and exciting (and it makes me so happy every time I see Aronofsky’s name!) It’s tight between Hooper and Fincher.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Not a shred of suspense here.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Portman is far and away the frontrunner, but I don’t think that an upset from Bening is completely out of the question, either.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Bale has been dominating the precursors and gaining heaps of praise. Sure, it’s possible that Rush could spoil that, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Leo’s supposed “antics” are causing some to question her chances (I haven’t really been following it, though). It’s true that Carter and Steinfeld have some traction, and I wouldn’t be shocked if either of them took the win, but my money is still on Leo.
Best Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Outside the Law (Algeria)
I feel like this group of films has a bit of a higher profile than last year’s group, which didn’t seem to get much attention until after the ceremony. But perhaps that’s just because more of these films have had a North American release already. I see Dogtooth as the equivalent of A Prophet last year (in other words, one that film fans love, but won’t win) and Biutiful as The White Ribbon (a grim film by a respected director who has done English language work. Once again, probably won’t win). Perhaps I’m swayed by the amplified coverage that Incendies has received here in Canada, but I think that it could be the winner.
Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
I’m actually not sure about this one. They could give it to Nolan as an apology for the Director snub. But when a film is on a role like The King’s Speech will likely be, it tends to take screenplay, even if it’s not necessarily the deserving winner.
Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
Wouldn’t it be fun if Exit Through the Gift Shop won? (and because I’m an uncultured asshole, it’s the only one of these – or any documentary from 2010 – that’s I’ve seen). But Serious Business will probably win out, and I’m predicting Restrepo for the win.
Best Original Song
127 Hours (“If I Rise”)
Country Strong (“Coming Home”)
Tangled (“I See the Light”)
Toy Story 3 (“We Belong Together”)
Wait, you mean there’s no bearded folkie this year? What is this? I have no clue who will win, then. I’m going to go with “If I Rise”, because if Oscar can’t have a bearded folkie, they will usually settle for A.R. Rahman. And since their Best Song Golden Age of the 1990’s, Disney hasn’t had much luck in this category.
Best Original Score
127 Hours (A.R. Rahman)
How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King’s Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Fack. I dunno. From past experience, the Oscars aren’t cool, so I don’t know if they’re ready for Reznor and Ross’s brooding, minimalist score. And Zimmer and Desplat are BIG names. Whatever, I’m still going for Reznor.
Best Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
This is Deakins’ NINTH nomination, with no previous wins. He’s winning the damn category this time.
Best Sound Mixing
Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
I never know what to do with the sound categories.
Best Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
There’s no Elizabethan period piece nominated. Therefore I am at a loss. I’m going with Colleen Atwood because she’s nominated every damn year and has designed costumes for roughly every movie ever made.
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit
Best Makeup
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
And now for the portion where I take wild, uneducated guesses (I literally just watched the trailer for the shorts here, and based my predictions off the 5 second clips):
Best Short Film (Live Action)
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Comes Up
The Warriors of Quigang
Best Short Film (Animated)
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de Voyage
Times Like Those 
I’m with you on “Wish 143” for short film and “The Lost Thing” for short animation. I find the short animation “Night and Day” has been recommended by some but I find it one of the most appalling animations I have ever seen.