Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Supporting Actress

Last Updated: January 24, 2011

This category started lacklustre, finally took some shape, and now seems to be falling apart again. Leo is the frontrunner, but she strangely missed out on a BAFTA nomination. Steinfeld (if she gets voted in as Supporting) pose legitimate threats in the category, and I wouldn’t count out Weaver, either. I still can’t settle on which five will be nominated. Part of me wants to predict Hollywood darling Kunis over Weaver, but I also don’t want to underestimate the power of a slow-building, never waning awards season buzz, which Weaver has. But if Steinfeld goes Lead, or Carter misses out (which isn’t impossible), maybe both will get in. And even Barbara Hershey is getting some buzz (and a BAFTA nod). At least it keeps things interesting.

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Orange = good chance of nomination

Yellow = a strong contender

Green = in the mix

Blue = longshot

Oscar Predictions Home | Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor

1. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

There is no longer a question of a nomination, with Leo winning the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, and being recognized by nearly every critics group. She’s a respected veteran actress, and while her win is likely, it is by no means assured (see: Leo’s BAFTA snub).
2. Amy Adams (The Fighter)

The Fighter is a hit, and Adams is the kind of young but established starlet that the awards groups love. Leo has been dominating the awards, and vote splitting between the two Fighter ladies could potentially leave Adams out in the cold, but I am pretty sure that she’ll get a nom.
3. Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)

The King’s Speech is the epitome of Oscar bait, and its three performances have garnered lots of awards attention. However, Carter’s buzz seems to be waning, and some are calling her role in the film unsubstantial.
4. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Steinfeld is getting lots of praise (the critics groups seem especially enamoured), but category confusion may hinder her chances. Many are claiming that to place her as Supporting would be “category fraud”, yet I don’t think there would be room for her in the substantially more competitive Lead category. Fair or not, her best chances are here.
5. Mila Kunis (Black Swan)

She’s quickly becoming a serious contender, scoring Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice nominations. However, her buzz started late, and she may split some votes with co-star Barbara Hershey (who scored a BAFTA nom over Kunis)
6. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Weaver surprised when she won Best Supporting Actress from the National Board of Review, and many critics groups have recognized her. It might be too small of a movie with too obscure of an actress for the Academy, though.

Longshots

Barbara Hershey – Black Swan

Awards Tracker

HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics Choice | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts

(Red asterisk denotes win)

Leo

Adams

Carter

Steinfeld

Weaver

Kunis

HFPA

*

*

*

*

*

SAG

*

*

*

*

*

BAFTA

*

*

+

BFCA

*

*

*

*

*

*

IPA

*

*

Chicago

*

*

*

*

*

D.C.

*

*

*

*

*

Denver

*

*

*

*

Detroit

*

*

*

*

Houston

*

*

*

*

Las Vegas

*

*

*

*

*

Ohio

*

*

*

*

Online

*

*

*

*

*

Phoenix

*

*

*

San Diego

*

*

St. Louis

*

*

*

*

Utah

*

*

+

*

*

NSFC

*

*

*

NBR

*

HFA

*

Austin

*

Dallas

*

Florida

*

Indiana

*

*

Iowa

*

*

*

Kansas

*

L.A.

*

N.Texas

*

*

*

N.Y.

*

N.Y Online

*

O.K.

*

San Fran

*

Southeast

*

*

Toronto

*

*

*

Vancouv.

*

*

*

+ = nominated in Lead Actress category

Past Predictions

December – 1. Leo, 2.Adams, 3. Bonham Carter, 4. Steinfeld, 5. Weaver

November – 1. Bonham Carter, 2. Richardson, 3. Adams, 4. Leo, 5. Wiest

October – 1. Bonham Carter, 2. Richardson, 3. Adams, 4. Leo, 5. Steinfeld

September – 1. Bonham Carter, 2. Richardson (Made in Dagenham), 3. Adams, 4. Fanning, 5. Wiest

August – 1. Adams, 2. Moore, 3. Bonham Carter, 4. Fanning, 5. Wiest

July – Adams, Bonham Carter, Fanning, Howard, Moore

June – Adams, Bonham Carter, Fanning, Howard, Moore

May – Adams, Howard, Ronan (The Way Back), Amy Ryan (Jack Goes Boating), Spacek (Get Low)

March – Adams, Fanning, Howard (Hereafter), Mirren (Brighton Rock), Moore (The Kids Are All Right)

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6 responses to “Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Supporting Actress

  1. Amy Adams vai ser indicada e vai ganhar o oscar que apostá ela e a malhor em tudo o que faz.

  2. SilverHollywood

    And what about Juliette Lewis in “Conviction”?She´s got strong reviews about her excellent,stunning,awsome performance with a lot of praise.

  3. JULIETTE LEWIS WAS AMAZING IN CONVICTION!

  4. Right after I saw Conviction I thought JULIETTE LEWIS had to at least be put up for the award!

  5. Jacki Weaver should get this one, but in a surprise upset Amy Adams will take it home over Melissa Leo.

    You heard it here first, kids!

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