Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Actress

Last Updated: January 21, 2011

Four of the five Best Actress slots more or less locked up (but don’t be too surprised in Lawrence or Kidman miss out), and the fifth seems to be up for grabs. Williams and Manville are the two most likely candidates, but Julianne Moore and Hilary Swank are bigger names that have garnered some buzz. And there’s even Noomi Rapace as an extreme longshot – the critics groups went crazy for her.

Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination

Orange = good chance of nomination

Yellow = a strong contender

Green = in the mix

Blue = longshot

Oscar Predictions Home | Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

1. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Being the frontrunner to win, there is no way that Portman isn’t getting nominated. She the big thing in Hollywood right now, her film is surprisingly successful, and her punishing performance is the kind of role that Oscar loves to recognize.

2. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride. Once considered the category’s frontrunner, it looks like Bening may have to settle for second best behind a younger lady once again.

3. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

Winter’s Bone is maintaining buzz very well, and Lawrence is a critical favourite. Some may say that her youth and inexperience may be a slight setback, but Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe, and Ellen Page would probably say otherwise.

4. Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Kidman’s performance is getting great reviews, and her film has been well-received – by those who’ve actually seen it. It’s box office is underwhelming, and Kidman is its only awards prospect. However, I think her name and positive feedback will be enough to get her a nomination.

5. Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

It’s a tough fight for the fifth spot. And while her film is getting stellar reviews – as is both she and her co-star – does it have the momentum for Oscar recognition? The Golden Globe nom and NC-17 controversy will help, but I’m not positive that it will be enough.

6. Leslie Manville (Another Year)

It’s a small film, and Manville isn’t a household name, but those who like the performance really seem to love it. Category confusion could get her a spot in the Supporting Actress race, instead, though.

7. Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)

Moore has four nominations but no wins, and some felt that she was snubbed last year for A Single Man. Her buzz seems to be on the rise. However, Bening is getting the bulk of the award attention, and it’s rare for a movie to have a double Best Actress nomination (Thelma and Louise was the last one to do it).

 

Long Shots

Hilary Swank (Conviction)

Noomi Rapace (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

 

Awards Tracker

HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts

(Red asterisk denotes win)

 

Portman

Bening

Lawrence

Kidman

Manville

Williams

Moore

HFPA

*

*

*

*

 

*

*

SAG

*

*

*

*

     

BAFTA

*

*

   

+

 

*

BFCA

*

*

*

*

 

*

 

ISA

*

*

*

*

 

*

 

IPA

*

*

*

*

 

*

*

Chicago

*

*

*

 

*

*

 

D.C.

*

*

*

*

     

Denver

*

 

*

 

*

*

 

Detroit

*

 

*

*

 

*

 

Houston

*

*

*

*

   

+

L.Vegas

*

*

*

*

     

Ohio

*

*

*

*

   

*

Online

*

*

*

*

     

Phoenix

*

*

*

     

*

S.Diego

*

 

*

 

+

*

 

S.Louis

*

 

*

*

     

Utah

*

 

*

*

+

*

 

NSFC

 

*

   

*

   

NBR

       

*

   

HFA

 

*

         

Austin

*

           

Boston

*

           

Dallas

*

           

Florida

*

           

Indiana

*

 

*

       

Iowa

*

*

*

       

Kansas

*

           

L.A.

*

           

N.Texas

*

*

*

       

N.Y.

 

*

         

N.Y.O.

*

           

O.K.

*

           

SanFran

         

*

 

S.E.

*

 

*

       

Toronto

*

*

     

*

 

Vancou.

*

*

*

       

+ nominated/won in the Best Supporting Actress category

 

Past Predictions

December: 1. Portman, 2. Bening, 3. Lawrence, 4. Kidman, 5. Manville

November: 1. Bening, 2. Portman, 3. Kidman, 4. Manville, 5. Lawrence

October: 1. Bening, 2. Portman, 3. Manville, 4. Kidman, 5. Lawrence

September: 1. Bening, 2. Portman, 3. Manville, 4. Williams, 5. Kidman

August: 1. Bening, 2. Manville, 3. Lawrence, 4. Lane, 5. Williams

July: Bening, Hathaway, Lane, Lawrence, Manville

June: Hathaway, Lane, Lawrence, Manville, Williams

May: Hathaway, Kidman, Portman, Roberts (Eat, Pray, Love), Williams

March: Bening, Hathaway, Kidman, Portman, Williams

 

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2 responses to “Oscar Predictions 2011: Best Actress

  1. Pingback: 2010 Was a Good Year for Women in Film – Zelda Lily, Feminism in a Bra

  2. I really hope Manville gets the nod. I still think she gives the best performance of the year, although I haven’t seen Black Swan yet. I posted an entry in my blog today about my top feamle performances this year. They are (no leading/supp. diff.)
    1. Lesley Manville
    2. Jacki Weaver
    3. Kim Hye-ja
    4. Juliette Binoche
    5. Yoong Jeong-lee
    6. Olivia Williams
    7. Jennifer Lawrence
    8. Sylvie Testud
    9. Blake Lively
    10. Annette Bening
    For complete list and commentary:
    http://www.imitationlife.com/home/2010/12/27/best-female-performances-of-2010.html

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