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So this is it. In less than 48 hours, the nominations for the 84th Academy Awards will be announced. It’s been a pretty good race, in my opinion. It seems more unpredictable than the past couple of years, which is fun. Movies and performances that should been major contenders have kind of fallen by the wayside, while unexpected dark horses have emerged. I’m still conflicted about a couple of the acting categories, and I feel like there are definitely going to be some surprises on Tuesday morning. Here are my final FULL predictions for the nominees (the individual category pages, which include rankings, have also been updated).
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
I’m predicting that the Academy will nominate these seven films, though I could definitely see War Horse potentially missing the cut. The other six are pretty much sure bets. If the Academy wants to nominate more than seven (or snubs War Horse), then The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo would be my next guess, since it does seem to be picking up steam. The Tree of Life is another viable contender, but ultimately, I don’t think either film will make it in.
Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
In some ways, this has been one of the least predictable categories. Hazanavicius, Scorsese, and Payne are obvious choices, but what about the other two slots? Spielberg should be a shoe-in for the visually grand War Horse, but what if the Academy snubs it for Best Picture. And what about that fifth slot? Bennett Miller for Moneyball seems like a solid choice, but his support really hasn’t been strong this awards season (he hasn’t gotten any major directing nominations this year). Similarly, Terrence Malick would be a very deserving nominee, but The Tree of Life seems too “out there” for the Academy (and if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination, could he still get in?). That’s why I’m going with Woody Allen. His film was an unexpected hit, he got the DGA and Golden Globe noms, and everyone loves Woody, right?
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
This is one of those categories that seem like they’re all sewn up. But while I am predicting Fassbender, I also wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him miss out on a nomination thanks to his controversial, small film. (Despite what some people are saying about Leo, I think he’s locked.) I just can’t come up with a compelling enough alternative to switch Fassbender out for. Gary Oldman would be the most likely replacement, I suppose, but aside from the BAFTA nomination, he really doesn’t have much momentum. Gosling, Birchir, and Shannon are all vaguely possible. I say Fassbender’s in, but there could definitely be an upset here.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
These category appears to be a little bit more cut and dry. Sure, Close or even Swinton could miss out in favour of Charlize Theron or Rooney Mara, but I don’t really see that happening.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
We’ve got our winner already in this category, it’s just a matter of figuring out who the other nominees will be. Branagh is in, and Brooks and Hill look like pretty safe bets (but Brooks did miss out on that SAG nomination…). Nick Nolte is the most obvious fifth pick, but while lots of people like the performance, it doesn’t seem like he’s exactly taking this Oscar season by storm. I still think Max von Sydow could sneak in as a surprise, but he’s been almost completely absent this awards season (just like his film). Even Stanley Tucci had some precursor support when he got nominated for a similarly disliked prestige picture. Hammer, Oswalt, Mortensen, and Serkis have at least received a bit of precursor support, but I can’t really see any of those happening. What about Ben Kingsley? At least his film has some traction. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here, but for now, I’ll go with the “obvious” picks.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
I’ve probably agonized over this category the most. Spencer is the only sure bet. Bejo and Chastain are quite likely. But I could see any combination of McTeer, Woodley, and Melissa McCarthy getting in for the last two spots. No matter who misses out, it will be surprising (to me, at least). I know a lot of people think Woodley will miss out because she didn’t get a SAG nomination (or a BAFTA nom), and that is very possible. The same kind of thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. But I’m sticking with her (barely). Maybe it’s more wishful thinking on my part, but it just seems like the right film and the right role to get a young actress nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult
I’m not sure if so many comedies can get in, but the WGA went solid comedies in this category, too. And these were some of the best original screenplays of the year, so why not recognize them accordingly? Margin Call is definitely a possible spoiler, though.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The last couple of spots are murky, and The Ides of March or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could easily get in over Hugo or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Cinematography
The Artist
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Art Direction
The Artist
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
War Horse
Visual Effects
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Costumes
Albert Nobbs
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week With Marilyn
Make-Up
The Green Lantern
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
J. Edgar
Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Sound Editing
Captain America: The First Aveger
Drive
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Sound Mixing
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Original Score
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Original Song
“Lay Down Your Head”, Albert Nobbs
“Star-Spangled Man”, Captain America
“Hello Hello”, Gnomeo & Juliet
“The Living Proof”, The Help
“Life’s a Happy Song”, The Muppets
Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
Happy Feet 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Winnie the Pooh
Best Picture – Drama
Will Win: The Help
Should Win: The Descendants
Best Picture – Comedy
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Best Actor – Drama
Will Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress – Drama
Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should Win: Davis is the only one I’ve seen, and I thought she was great.
Best Actor – Comedy
Will Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Should Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Best Actress – Comedy
Will Win: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Should Win: Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids (though I haven’t seen Marilyn)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help
Should Win: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Best Director
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Best Screenplay
Will Win: Moneyball
Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Best Original Song
Will Win: “The Living Proof”, The Help
Best Original Score
Will Win: The Artist
Best Animated Film
Will Win: The Adventures of Tintin
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Separation
Best TV Series – Drama
Will Win: Boardwalk Empire
Best TV Series – Comedy
Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Modern Family
Best Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Mildred Pierce
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Will Win: Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Will Win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Will Win: Laura Linney, The Big C? (No idea who will take this category)
Should Win: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Best Actor in a Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie
Will Win: William Hurt, Too Big to Fail?
Best Actress in a Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce
Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series, or Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Paul Giamatti, Too Big to Fail (these TV supporting categories are so packed that I could see anyone winning)
Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series, or Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Maggie Smith, Dowton Abbey
10 Actors Who I’m Happy To See Nominated Just Because I Like Them
- Michael Fassbender
- Ryan Gosling
- William Hurt
- Diane Lane
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt
- Kelly MacDonald
- Bill Nighy
- Guy Pearce
- Kristen Wiig
- Owen Wilson
Holy cow, it’s been a busy couple days in Oscarland. Since the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow (!), I figured I’d run down my predictions for the major film categories. DISCLAIMER: They will probably all be wrong.
Best Picture (Drama)
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Moneyball
War Horse
Alt: Hugo
Best Picture (Comedy)
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn
Young Adult
Alt: The Muppets
Best Actor (Drama)
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Alt: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Best Actor (Comedy)
Johnny Depp, The Rum Diary
Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Alt: Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
Best Actress (Drama)
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Alt: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Actress (Comedy)
Julia Roberts, Larry Crowne
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage
Alt: Cameron Diaz, Bad Teacher
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Alt: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Alt: Berenice Bejo, The Artist or Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography and Art Direction
Costumes
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| 1. Jane Eyre | 2. Albert Nobbs | 3. Hugo | 4. My Week With Marilyn | 5. The Help |
| Period costume dramas are the lifeblood of this category. This is a good one. | Well, it’s another costume drama. All of the apparent emphasis on clothing in the film could help. | It’s a visual feast, and the costumes are an important part of that. | Not totally sold on the costumes from the trailer, but it just seems like a natural choice. | Evocative of a specific time period. Part of a very popular film. |
Other Possibilities: War Horse, W.E., The Tree of Life, J. Edgar, The Iron Lady, A Dangerous Method
Makeup
This is always a difficult category to predict, and there is often at least one WTF nomination that no one expects. For all three films nominated in this category last year (The Wolfman, Barney’s Version, and The Way Back), it was their sole nomination. But alas, here is my best effort.
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| 1. J. Edgar | 2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 | 3. Green Lantern |
| Movies that require their characters to age drastically often (but not always) do well here. | It’s the series last hurrah, and they’ve always been strong with make-up. | Peter Sarsgaard looks pretty freaky. And this category isn’t afraid of dud films (see: Norbit). |
Other Possibilities: TONS. A Dangerous Method, My Week With Marilyn, The Iron Lady, X-Men: First Class, Albert Nobbs, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, etc, etc.
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress
Cinematography
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1. War Horse Janusz Kaminski Watch the trailer. How could it not get nominated? |
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2. The Tree of Life Emmanuel Lubezki I’m doubtful about its chances for Picture or Director, but this seems like a category that this film will get some love in. |
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3. Hugo Robert Richardson The visual scope on this film is quite impressive, and it’s clearly very carefully shot. This film will probably do very well in the technical categories. |
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4. The Artist Guillame Shiffman It’s probably going to get nominated for everything else, so why not this? |
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5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Eduardo Serra It’s the last year for this franchise to get nom’d. I don’t think the Academy will go nuts, but I could see it getting in here. |
Other Possibilities: Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Solider Spy, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Drive, Jane Eyre
Art Direction
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1. Hugo Dante Ferretti Well, it certainly looks pretty. |
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2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Stuart Craig The franchise often gets nominated in this category, so and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one finally ends up winning. |
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3. The Artist Laurence Bennett The silent film era is full of rich visuals. This film is bound to do well in a lot of other categories, so why not here, too? |
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4. War Horse Rick Carter Looks like your typically stunning period epic. Seems like a sure-fire bet in many technical categories. |
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5. Captain America: The First Avenger Rick Heinrichs The retro stylings of the film are very nice to look at, and Heinrichs has three noms under his belt (he won for Sleepy Hollow). |
Other Possibilities: Water For Elephants, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Midnight in Paris, Jane Eyre
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography and Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. The Artist |
2. Hugo |
3. The Descendants |
4. War Horse |
5. Midnight in Paris |
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Michael Hazanavicius |
Martin Scorsese |
Alexander Payne |
Stephen Spielberg |
Woody Allen |
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He may not be a well-known director in North America, but a lot of credit will go to the director for The Artist‘s style and crowd-pleasing results. |
For its visual scope alone, Hugo is quite an achievement. With a probable BP nom and such a respected director at its helm, it seems like a likely pick in this category. |
The Descendants isn’t as visually showy, but there is probably still enough there to earn Payne another Best Director nomination. |
Spielberg’s last Director nom was for Letters from Iwo Jima, and this could easily be the film that gets him back in contention. He’s certainly trying. |
He’s already got a DGA and Globe nomination, and people love him and his film. |
Other Possibilities
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Bennett Miller (Moneyball) David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Tate Taylor (The Help)
Past Predictions
December: 1. Hazanavicius, 2. Spielberg, 3. Payne, 4. Scorsese, 5. Miller
November: Daldry, Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Fincher, Payne
October: Daldry, Fincher, Hazanavicius, Payne, Spielberg
September: Daldry, Fincher, Hazanavicius, Payne, Spielberg
August: Cronenberg, Eastwood, Fincher, Reitman, Spielberg
July: Cronenberg, Eastwood, Fincher, Reitman, Spielberg
June: Cronenberg, Eastwood, Fincher, Reitman, Spielberg
May: Cronenberg, Eastwood, Fincher, Malick, Spielberg
March: Cronenberg, Fincher, Malick, Scorsese, Spielberg
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
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1. Midnight in Paris |
2. The Artist |
3. Young Adult |
4. 50/50 |
5. Bridesmaids |
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Woody Allen |
Michael Hazanavicius |
Diablo Cody |
Will Reiser |
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo |
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It’s Woody’s best since Vicky Christina, and literary-minded hits don’t come along every day. |
Surprising in some ways (considering its a silent film), but very likely. |
Cody won this category back in ’08, and as long as early reviews are accurate, she and Reitman have done it again. |
Audiences responded well to the mix of comedy and drama. Got a WGA nomination. |
Granted, this is a lot of comedies for one category, but the WGA went for this one, too. |
Other Possibilities: Margin Call, J. Edgar, Beginners
Best Adapted Screenplay
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1. Moneyball |
2. The Descendants |
3. The Help |
4. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
5. Hugo |
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Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin |
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash |
Tate Taylor |
Bridget O’Connor and Peter Strong |
John Logan |
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Aaron Sorkin had the magic touch with The Social Netowork, and he could score another homerun with Moneyball. |
Thoughtful character studies tend to do well, and Payne proved he had writing chops with Sideways. |
Popular book + successful movie = Oscar nomination, in many cases (Seabiscuit, Atonement) |
I’d expect sharp dialogue from this British spy thriller. Based on a successful book. |
Based on a rich, semi-illustrated kids novel. Successful film, got a WGA nomination. |
Other Possibilities: The Ides of March, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Previous Predictions
December: 1. Midnight in Paris, 2. The Artist, 3. Young Adult, 4. J. Edgar, 5. Margin Call
1. Moneyball, 2. The Descendants, 3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 5. The Help
October: 1. Midnight in Paris, 2. Young Adult, 3. J. Edgar, 4. The Artist, 5. Like Crazy
1. Moneyball, 2. The Descendants, 3. The Help, 4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. Octavia Spencer (The Help)
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Pros: People love The Help, and Spencer is a great comedic presence in a film that sometimes borders on being overly earnest. Aside from Viola Davis, she’s received the most praise. Cons: She’s not a big name, and comedic performances aren’t often hugely popular at the Oscars. Also: internal vote-splitting with cast-mates? |
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2. Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
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Pros: All of her support from the precursors came as a bit of surprise to me, but The Artist is poised to be the biggest Oscar hit of the year, so I probably should have seen it coming. Cons: Everything would suggest that she’ll be nominated, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see her miss out in the end, a la Mila Kunis last year. |
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3. Jessica Chastain (The Help)
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Pros: No other actor has had a bigger breakthrough year than Jessica Chastain. And the awards groups seem to have (predictably) honed in on The Help as the performance that they want to celebrate from her. Cons: Possible vote-splitting between Help ladies and/or other Chastain performances. |
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4. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
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Pros: It’s said to be a showy role, and critics have latched onto her transformative performance as a woman disguised as a man. As well, Close’s star-power will help bring more attention to the film. Got a Globe and a SAG nomination. Cons: The film itself isn’t getting rave reviews, or much attention. If Close misses out, could McTeer still get in? |
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5. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
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Pros: Woodley’s steadily been gaining buzz for playing Clooney’s wayward oldest daughter. She got a Critics’ Choice and a Golden Globe nom, and she’s been the winner with a few critics groups, including the NBR. Cons: She missed out on the SAG, which really is a blow to her chances. The same thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. Is this more of a “liked” performance than an “Oscar” performance? |
Other Possibilities
6. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
7. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
8. Carey Mulligan (Shame)
9. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
+ denotes nomination/win for another performance or combination of performances
Past Predictions
December: 1. Spencer, 2. Bejo, 3. Chastain (The Help), 4. Woodley, 5. McTeer
November: 1. Spencer, 2. Woodley, 3. Bullock, 4. Redgrave, 5. Chastain (The Help)
October: 1. Spencer, 2. Bullock, 3. Woodley, 4. Chastain (The Help), 5. Mulligan
September: Bullock, Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Woodley
August: Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)
July: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)
June: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Tomei (The Ides of March), Watson (War Horse)
May: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)
March: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Kristen Scott Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), Watson (War Horse), Wright (Moneyball)
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
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Pros: Veteran actor who, despite his old age, has seen a recent resurgence in popularity. Earned raves for his performance as an ailing gay man. Hit all the big precursors. Cons: None. He’s in, and probably winning. |
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2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn)
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Pros: Vet actor who’s playing a real-life character (and a very colourful one at that). Co-star Williams is generating buzz. Could be something of a “welcome back” nomination for him. He hit the big precursors. Cons: Though the film received decent reviews, it didn’t get raves. Doesn’t seem to be a box office hit. |
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3. Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
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Pros: As his character would claim, it’s hard to argue with the stats. Hill got a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nod, and that combo has an excellent batting average. (I’m making myself groan with these analogies.) Cons: His odds are great, but the only possibility is that the Academy won’t take him seriously enough to nominate him. Perhaps The Sitter left a bad taste in voters’ mouths (if any of them saw it). |
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4. Albert Brooks (Drive)
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Pros: Drive was met with mixed reactions, but buzz about Brooks’ chances at an Oscar nomination refuses to die down. He’s been the frontrunner early in awards season. Cons: He missed out on the SAG nominations, and while I don’t think that’s nearly enough to kill his chances at being nominated, it almost guarantees that he won’t win the Oscar. |
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5. Nick Nolte (Warrior)
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Pros: His buzz has refused to die down. He’s been nominated by the BFCA and SAG, and in the past three years, Mila Kunis and Robert Duvall were the only actors to achieve that and then be snubbed by the Academy. Cons: This would be the film’s only nomination, and that can occasionally cause contenders to fall by the wayside (see: Duvall). He did also miss the Golden Globe nom. |
Other Possibilities
6. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
7. Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
8. Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
9. Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
10. Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
11. John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
Past Predictions
December: 1. Plummer, 2. Branagh, 3. Brooks, 4. Hill, 5. Nolte
November: 1. Plummer, 2. Brooks, 3. Branagh, 4. Von Sydow, 5. Hammer
October: 1. Plummer, 2. Mortensen, 3. Von Sydow, 4. Branagh, 5. Hammer
September: Branagh, Brooks, Hammer, Hawkes, Plummer
August: Branagh, Brooks, Hawkes, Hoffman (The Ides of March), Mortensen
July: Branagh, Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen, Waltz
June: Branagh, Hammer, Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen
May: Branagh, Fiennes (Coriolanus), Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen
March: Giamatti (The Ides of March), Hoffman (Moneyball), Mortensen, Penn, Plummer
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICITONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography and Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
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Pros: She’s Meryl Streep. Seriously. Cons: None. She’s getting nominated, and has a good chance at winning. |
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2. Viola Davis (The Help)
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Pros: Her movie was a feel-good hit, and critics seemed to almost universally agree that Davis was the strongest member of great cast. Cons: Her performance may have been too low-key to stick with voters. But I doubt it. |
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3. Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
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Pros: Williams is coming off a nomination just last year, and this is the kind of glitzy biopic that can do very well at the Oscars. If the Academy really goes for this movie, Williams could even have a shot at winning. Cons: Unless the film really doesn’t agree with the Academy (which I doubt), she’s in. |
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4. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
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Pros: She’s a previous winner in a meaty role, and many felt that she has been snubbed the past couple of years. She secured BFCA and SAG nominations, which almost always = Oscar nomination. Cons: It’s a small film, and that has worked against Swinton in the past couple years (that said, she did not have the pre-cursor support in previous years). |
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5. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
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Pros: Close is a five-time loser at the Oscars. That’s hard to compete with. So far, she’s been getting raves for this performance. She got a SAG nomination. Cons: Aside from the SAG nom, she’s been strangely absent this awards season. Her film wasn’t universally loved. |
Other Possibilities
6. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
7. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
8. Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
9. Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
+ denotes nomination/win in the Supporting Actress category
Past Predictions
December: 1. Streep, 2. Davis, 2. Williams, 4. Swinton, 5. Close
November: 1. Davis, 2. Streep, 3. Close, 4. Olsen, 5. Williams
September: 1. Davis, 2. Streep, 3. Close, 4. Olsen, 5. Swinton
August: Close, Jones, Olsen, Streep, Swinton
July: Close, Jones, Olsen, Streep, Swinton
June: Close, Jones, Olsen, Streep, Williams
May: Close, Dunst, Olsen, Streep, Swinton
March: Close, Jones, Streep, Swinton, Theron
