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Well, it’s finally Oscar weekend. In honor of that, I’m posting my final set of predictions for who I think will take home the Oscar in each category. Click here to see the full list of nominees.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actor: Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Actress: Viola Davis: The Help
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Animated Feature Film: Chico & Rita
Cinematography: War Horse (tough pick!)
Art Direction: Hugo
Costume Design: Hugo
Make-Up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Film Editing: Hugo
Sound Editing: War Horse
Sound Mixing: Transformers Dark of the Moon (no idea with this category)
Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Original Score: The Artist
Original Song: “Man or Muppet”, The Muppets
Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Documentary Feature: Pina
Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (yay for guessing!)
Live Action Short: Time Freak (ditto!)
Animated Short: A Morning Stroll (and again!)
Every year, the same movies snatch up a big portion of the Oscar nominations. Then, we hear about these movies for months as we lead up to Oscar night. And while this year has been a pretty exciting race (I’d say the winners for both lead acting categories are up in the air), and there were a few surprise nominees that snuck in at the last moment (what’s up, Demian Birchir?), it can get a little bit repetitive to hear about the same movies over and over again, even if you enjoyed them.
In hopes of offering a change of pace, I’ve compiled my own “Oscar” list of sorts. For my categories, I ignored all of the existing Oscar nominees and focussed on films and performances that didn’t receive as much awards attention this year. I also omitted people like Shailene Woodley, who did not receive an Oscar nomination but still got lots of attention from critics, bloggers, and awards groups leading up to the nominations.
Also, keep in mind that there are still lots of films from this year that I need to see. Shame, Take Shelter, Melancholia, and Martha Marcy May Marlene are just a few on that list.
Enjoy, and feel free to post your own “alternative Oscars” in the comments.
Best Picture
Drive
The Ides of March
Meek’s Cutoff
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Win Win
It may be a small, unassuming film, but Meek’s Cutoff stuck with me in a big way this year. The film is unconventional in almost every way (the pacing, the mumbled dialogue, the refusal to punch up the story with high drama), and it’s a true achievement in cinema.
Best Director
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Carey Fukanaga, Jane Eyre
Nicholas Winding Refn, Drive
Kelly Reichardt, Meek’s Cutoff
Again, I have to give this one to Meek’s Cutoff. While Nicholas Winding Refn offered a masterclass in cool and Tomas Alfredson built insane tension around old guys sitting around talking in a room, Kelly Reichardt created something truly unique. I didn’t care for her last project, Wendy and Lucy, but her deliberate pace and sparse, terse tone worked wonders in Meek’s.
Best Actor
Dominic Cooper, The Devil’s Double
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Tom Hardy, Warrior
Ewan McGregor, Beginners
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
Cooper masters not one but two challenging roles in this messy film. He’s chilling and downright crazy as Sadam Hussein’s son, Uday, and also deeply sympathetic as Latif, the man hired as Uday’s double. It’s a towering pair of performances, and Cooper finally realizes the potential he showed in small roles in films such as Starter for 10 and An Education.
Best Actress
Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
Keira Knightley, Last Night
Mia Wasikowska, Jane Eyre
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Robin Wright, The Conspirator
Wiig gives a downright brilliant comedic performance in Bridesmaids, and sometimes that is enough for me. She throws herself into every gag headfirst, and she comes out in the end with a highly charming, perfectly executed performance. McCarthy is also great, but for me, Wiig is the reason to watch Bridesmaids.
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre
Colin Ford, We Bought a Zoo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March
Simon Pegg, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Mark Strong, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I thought Fassbender was a tad overrated in X-Men (sorry), but he reminded me why I loved him so much in Fish Tank with a similarly physical and subtly threatening performance in the gorgeous Jane Eyre. He oozes charisma here, and makes for a completely magnetic screen presence. Kudos to Mark Strong, too, for fantastic scene-stealing work in Tinker Tailor, and for converting me into a Mark Strong fan.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
Anna Kendrick, 50/50
Carey Mulligan, Drive
Amy Ryan, Win Win
Michelle Williams, Meek’s Cutoff
It was the year of Chastain, and my favourite performance of hers (though I haven’t seen them all) was as the ethereal wife in The Tree of Life. It’s a beautiful, moving performance, and she slips seamlessly into the languid tone of the film.
Well, well, well. There were definitely a few surprises in this morning’s nominations. In fact, I’d say that there’s at least one surprise in all of the major categories. It keeps things interesting, which is fun. Let’s take a look.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
WOW, okay. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was definitely a surprise. I think most people (myself included) had given up on that one. The Tree of Life is less surprising, but I still would’ve thought The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo would’ve gotten in ahead of it. However, I do have to pat myself on the back a little bit for predicting that Dragon Tattoo would miss out. All of my predictions were correct in this category were correct – I just missed two of them.
Best Actor
Demian Birchir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman: Academy Award Nominee, at last! Guess this category wasn’t nearly as obvious as it seemed. Surprising about Birchir (guess I should have watched A Better Life when it was in the house), but I do feel a bit bad for Leo and Fassy (even though I’m not THAT surprised to see the latter snubbed).
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Oh, snap! Mara is a surprise (especially since she only got a Globe nom). Everyone else makes sense, but I am surprised that Swinton was the one to get snubbed over Close. I thought that this category would be pretty predictable.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When I saw EL&IC on the Best Picture list, I had a feeling von Sydow would be in. However, I thought he’d replace Nolte or even Hill – not the former frontrunner Albert Brooks. Brooks was obviously slipping after missing out on the SAG (and I had him ranked 4th), but I’m still very surprised. All of the critical favourites are missing out, it seems. Good for Nick Nolte, though. He was fantastic in Warrior.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Damn, Woodley was the one to miss out after all (but I thought she might be when Albert Brooks was snubbed). A lot of people saw that coming, but I definitely think she should have gotten in over McCarthy (she was great in that movie, but Oscar worthy?) and probably Bejo, in my opinion. Ah, well.
Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
The Malick fanboys will be happy, the Fincher fanboys will be pissed. A lot of people thought this category would match up with the DGA nominations. I figured Fincher would miss out, but I’m a little surprised that Malick was the one to bump him (especially since War Horse did get a Best Picture nom. I guess the fact that The Tree of Life also got one should have been my hint.)
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Two surprises with Margin Call and A Separation. They were both very much in the discussion, but I’m a bit surprised both made it in. Yay for Bridesmaids, though. (Academy Award Nominee Kristen Wiig!)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Wow, I am really surprised that The Help missed out. Very, very surprised. I’m glad The Ides of March got in, though (even if it does mean yet another nomination for Clooney). I’m off to see Tinker Tailor later today, so we’ll see how that one measures up to the rest of the category.
Click here to see the full list of nominees. Want to know how many categories I correctly predicted all five nominees in? That would be zero.
So this is it. In less than 48 hours, the nominations for the 84th Academy Awards will be announced. It’s been a pretty good race, in my opinion. It seems more unpredictable than the past couple of years, which is fun. Movies and performances that should been major contenders have kind of fallen by the wayside, while unexpected dark horses have emerged. I’m still conflicted about a couple of the acting categories, and I feel like there are definitely going to be some surprises on Tuesday morning. Here are my final FULL predictions for the nominees (the individual category pages, which include rankings, have also been updated).
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
I’m predicting that the Academy will nominate these seven films, though I could definitely see War Horse potentially missing the cut. The other six are pretty much sure bets. If the Academy wants to nominate more than seven (or snubs War Horse), then The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo would be my next guess, since it does seem to be picking up steam. The Tree of Life is another viable contender, but ultimately, I don’t think either film will make it in.
Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
In some ways, this has been one of the least predictable categories. Hazanavicius, Scorsese, and Payne are obvious choices, but what about the other two slots? Spielberg should be a shoe-in for the visually grand War Horse, but what if the Academy snubs it for Best Picture. And what about that fifth slot? Bennett Miller for Moneyball seems like a solid choice, but his support really hasn’t been strong this awards season (he hasn’t gotten any major directing nominations this year). Similarly, Terrence Malick would be a very deserving nominee, but The Tree of Life seems too “out there” for the Academy (and if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination, could he still get in?). That’s why I’m going with Woody Allen. His film was an unexpected hit, he got the DGA and Golden Globe noms, and everyone loves Woody, right?
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
This is one of those categories that seem like they’re all sewn up. But while I am predicting Fassbender, I also wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him miss out on a nomination thanks to his controversial, small film. (Despite what some people are saying about Leo, I think he’s locked.) I just can’t come up with a compelling enough alternative to switch Fassbender out for. Gary Oldman would be the most likely replacement, I suppose, but aside from the BAFTA nomination, he really doesn’t have much momentum. Gosling, Birchir, and Shannon are all vaguely possible. I say Fassbender’s in, but there could definitely be an upset here.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
These category appears to be a little bit more cut and dry. Sure, Close or even Swinton could miss out in favour of Charlize Theron or Rooney Mara, but I don’t really see that happening.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
We’ve got our winner already in this category, it’s just a matter of figuring out who the other nominees will be. Branagh is in, and Brooks and Hill look like pretty safe bets (but Brooks did miss out on that SAG nomination…). Nick Nolte is the most obvious fifth pick, but while lots of people like the performance, it doesn’t seem like he’s exactly taking this Oscar season by storm. I still think Max von Sydow could sneak in as a surprise, but he’s been almost completely absent this awards season (just like his film). Even Stanley Tucci had some precursor support when he got nominated for a similarly disliked prestige picture. Hammer, Oswalt, Mortensen, and Serkis have at least received a bit of precursor support, but I can’t really see any of those happening. What about Ben Kingsley? At least his film has some traction. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here, but for now, I’ll go with the “obvious” picks.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
I’ve probably agonized over this category the most. Spencer is the only sure bet. Bejo and Chastain are quite likely. But I could see any combination of McTeer, Woodley, and Melissa McCarthy getting in for the last two spots. No matter who misses out, it will be surprising (to me, at least). I know a lot of people think Woodley will miss out because she didn’t get a SAG nomination (or a BAFTA nom), and that is very possible. The same kind of thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. But I’m sticking with her (barely). Maybe it’s more wishful thinking on my part, but it just seems like the right film and the right role to get a young actress nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult
I’m not sure if so many comedies can get in, but the WGA went solid comedies in this category, too. And these were some of the best original screenplays of the year, so why not recognize them accordingly? Margin Call is definitely a possible spoiler, though.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The last couple of spots are murky, and The Ides of March or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could easily get in over Hugo or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Cinematography
The Artist
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Art Direction
The Artist
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
War Horse
Visual Effects
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Costumes
Albert Nobbs
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week With Marilyn
Make-Up
The Green Lantern
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
J. Edgar
Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Sound Editing
Captain America: The First Aveger
Drive
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Sound Mixing
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Original Score
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Original Song
“Lay Down Your Head”, Albert Nobbs
“Star-Spangled Man”, Captain America
“Hello Hello”, Gnomeo & Juliet
“The Living Proof”, The Help
“Life’s a Happy Song”, The Muppets
Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
Happy Feet 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Winnie the Pooh
Top Row: Claire Danes, Tilda Swinton, Evan Rachel Wood
Middle: Laura Dern, Berenice Bejo, Charlize Theron
Bottom: Michelle Williams, Diane Lane, Octavia Spencer
Best Picture – Drama
Will Win: The Help
Should Win: The Descendants
Best Picture – Comedy
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Best Actor – Drama
Will Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress – Drama
Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should Win: Davis is the only one I’ve seen, and I thought she was great.
Best Actor – Comedy
Will Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Should Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Best Actress – Comedy
Will Win: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Should Win: Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids (though I haven’t seen Marilyn)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help
Should Win: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Best Director
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Best Screenplay
Will Win: Moneyball
Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Best Original Song
Will Win: “The Living Proof”, The Help
Best Original Score
Will Win: The Artist
Best Animated Film
Will Win: The Adventures of Tintin
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Separation
Best TV Series – Drama
Will Win: Boardwalk Empire
Best TV Series – Comedy
Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Modern Family
Best Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Mildred Pierce
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Will Win: Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Will Win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Will Win: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Will Win: Laura Linney, The Big C? (No idea who will take this category)
Should Win: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Best Actor in a Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie
Will Win: William Hurt, Too Big to Fail?
Best Actress in a Mini-Series/Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce
Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series, or Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Paul Giamatti, Too Big to Fail (these TV supporting categories are so packed that I could see anyone winning)
Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series, or Made for TV Movie
Will Win: Maggie Smith, Dowton Abbey
10 Actors Who I’m Happy To See Nominated Just Because I Like Them
- Michael Fassbender
- Ryan Gosling
- William Hurt
- Diane Lane
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt
- Kelly MacDonald
- Bill Nighy
- Guy Pearce
- Kristen Wiig
- Owen Wilson
1. The Help may be an even bigger threat than many anticipated
The Help has been a shoe-in for a Best Picture Oscar nomination for a while now. But do the Ensemble, Actress, and Supporting Actress wins from the Critics forecast its Oscar chances? Supporting Actress seems like a wide open race, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Spencer ends up taking home the Oscar (if she wins the Globe, she’ll become a safe bet for the win). I think Davis has tougher competition from Streep and Williams, but this is definitely a good early sign for her. It’ll be interesting to see how the SAG award for Best Ensemble plays out, seeing as that award often echoes the eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars. The Help has proven to be a fiercer competitor in the Best Picture race with these victories tonight, but I don’t think it will win the Oscar. Speaking of that…
2. The Artist will win Best Picture and probably Best Director
This isn’t really news, but I’d get used to seeing Michel Hazanvicius endearingly muddle his way through awards speeches. Scorsese and maybe Payne do pose a bit of a threat in the Best Director race, but I really think Hazanavicius is taking home the Oscar.
3. It’s within the realm of possibility that Bridesmaids could be a Best Picture nominee
The PGA nomination was huge for Bridesmaids, and it proved its awards traction again tonight by winning Best Comedy over presumed favourite Midnight in Paris. There are eight movies ahead of it in the Best Picture race, but since the category can go up to ten nominees, it’s a definite possibility.
4. Shailene Woodley is in trouble (maybe)
First Woodley missed out on the SAG nomination, which is kind of a big deal. Tonight, she lost the Best Young Actor award to Thomas Horn. And while Best Young Actor isn’t equivalent to Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, this loss suggests that support for her performance could be waning. However, Clooney’s win tonight suggests the film isn’t losing traction as a whole, as some speculated, so maybe support for his performance will help pull her through. I hope so, anyways.
5. Plummer is all but a lock for the win
He’s been the frontrunner ever since Brooks lost out on the SAG nomination (I don’t want to hyperbolize, but that snub is huge. Nobody wins the Oscar after missing out on a major precursor nomination like that.) His win tonight suggests that he’ll probably win the Oscar, and I am quite alright with that.
6. Best Actor is probably as predictable as it seems
Clooney has been the obvious choice to win the Oscar for quite a while, but all this hoopla about The Artist had some suggesting that DuJardin could win. Then Moneyball was a big hit and many were championing Pitt’s chances. And while they are still contenders (also: am I the only one who could see DiCaprio pulling out some bizarro win out of nowhere?), Clooney seems to be widening the gap with his win tonight. DuJardin will win the Comedy Actor Globe, and Clooney will probably win the Drama Actor Globe (seeing as he’s also nominated for Director), so Pitt’s chances seem to be diminishing. It’d be fun to have a Clooney/Pitt megastar showdown for the Oscar, though.
7. Diane Kruger is incapable of looking un-fierce
Sorry, this isn’t Oscar-related, but by my money, Diane Kruger is the best dressed at pretty much every event.
In just a few short days, we’ve seen the Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice), the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the Golden Globes) announce their nominees. These are widely considered to be the three biggest precursors to the Oscars, and they’re often very telling as to who will eventually be nominated. I did a little number-crunching and came up with some statistics that might help us figure out who’s getting an Oscar nomination, and who’s going to be left out in the cold. (I’m getting all Moneyball on this shit now.)
Best Actor
Locked: Clooney, DuJardin, Pitt
Very Likely: DiCaprio. He got all three major precursors, and in the past four years, only three actors have received that honour and then missed out on the Oscar nomination (Mila Kunis last year, and Ryan Gosling and Angelina Jolie in 2007).
The Rest: With Birchir getting a surprise SAG nom (but still being a longshot for an Oscar nom), it leaves things a bit open. The most likely pick in Fassbender in Shame, who hit 2 out of 3 precursors (which usually equals an Oscar nomination), but I still wouldn’t completely discount Oldman, who could pull off the all-or-nothing slot this year (in the past four years, there has been at least one actor to receive an Oscar nomination with no support from the three major precursors). Gosling is probably stretched too thin, since he has three nominations for three separate performances, and will likely suffer from vote-splitting.
Best Actress
Locked: Davis, Streep, Williams
Very Likely: Swinton
The Rest: As for the fifth spot, it seems to be between Close and Theron. My money is on Close, who got the SAG nom. Each year (on average) only 2-3 of the acting nominees get in without a SAG nomination, which really hurts Theron’s chances. Olsen is out (in the past four years, no actor has gotten an Oscar nomination with only a BFCA nod to their name), and Mara isn’t likely, either (Saoirse Ronan is the only actor in the past four years to get an Oscar nom with only a GG nom).
Best Supporting Actor
Locked: Plummer
Very Likely: Branagh, Brooks (he’ll likely still be nominated even without the SAG, but his chances of winning seem to be shot. No Oscar winning performance of the past four years missed out on any of the three major precursors)
The Rest: This category is still a mess, which is great. There are two spots that are wide open, and while Nick Nolte looks like a likely bet, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he missed out. But what about that fifth spot? Hill seems like the safest bet, since he got a SAG and Golden Globe nomination. But what about Armie Hammer? He’s a more “serious” young actor than Jonah Hill, and the Academy sometimes likes to recognize up-and-comers. Hammer’s chances are dampened by only having the SAG nomination to his name, though. In the past four years, only Ruby Dee and John Hawkes got into the Oscar line-ups with just a SAG nomination to their name, and Hammer is hardly the established actor that those two are. Mortensen’s a longshot, and Oswalt and Serkis are almost non-factors at this point. Von Sydow could slip in, but he has no momentum at this point, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’s buzz seems to be all but dead (but that might just be because it hasn’t screened much yet?)
Best Supporting Actress
Locked: Spencer
Very Likely: Bejo (I could see her pulling a Mila Kunis and missing out entirely), Chastain, Woodley (hurt by the SAG snub, could go the Andrew Garfield route?)
The Rest: In all likelihood, there is one spot left. And in all likelihood, either McCarthy or McTeer will snag it. My money is tentatively on McTeer at this point (it’s hard to ignore the SAG/Globe one-two punch), but it’s definitely not set in stone. Redgrave is also a possible spoiler, seeing as the same high-profile-actor/no-profile-movie thing worked for Javier Bardem last year and Tommy Lee Jones in 2007. Mulligan is out (BFCA only = no Oscar nomination), and Bullock’s is extremely unlikely.
A Few More Oscar Stats
- Statistically speaking, you’re more likely to get an Oscar nomination with NO pre-cursor support than with only one of the three. In the past for years, Javier Bardem, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, Laura Linney, and Tommy Lee Jones all received an Oscar nomination despite missing out on the three major precursors. Only John Hawkes, Ruby Dee, and Saoirse Ronan snagged an Oscar nomination after receiving support from one of the three precursors.
- While Kunis, Gosling, and Jolie missed out on an Oscar nomination after getting support from all three precursors, no actor in the past four years has received ONLY a SAG and a Golden Globe nomination and then went on to snubbed by the Oscars. This bodes extremely well for Glenn Close, Jonah Hill, and Janet McTeer, who were all somewhat on the fringes of their categories before yesterday’s announcement. Now that they have a SAG and a Globe nomination, one would think that their Oscar nomination is secure?
- Fassbender, Gosling, Theron, Brooks, Nolte, McCarthy, and Woodley are much more vulnerable. While they have 2/3 precursors, they either missed out on the SAG or the Golden Globe nomination. Except for 2008 (where no one with 2/3 or better missed out on an Oscar nomination), there are at least two actors every year who miss out on the Oscar nom with 2/3 precursors. There has to be at least two who miss out this year (three, if you count Gosling precursor nominations for multiple films), just based on the way the precursors have played out.
The 2012 Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning, and, as always, there were a few surprises in the list of nominees. My five biggest surprises:
- The quality of the nominees. No Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary, no Julia Roberts in Larry Crowne. Has the Hollywood Foreign Press finally dropped their star-worshipping tendencies? Maybe they couldn’t take all the flak they got last year with the now-infamous multiple nominations for The
Tourist. Or maybe there were just better films to fill the Comedy categories this year. Either way, this is a really deserving group of nominees, overall. - The Ides of March for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor. Clooney’s pic has received no love this awards season, yet the Hollywood Foreign Press recognized the film, Clooney’s direction, and its leading actor. Perhaps this is where the HFPA’s penchant for superstars comes into play. I would’ve thought that Clooney in Best Supporting Actor would have been its best chances at the Globes, but clearly the HFPA isn’t messing around. Also, what does this mean for Ryan Gosling? I had predicted him for Drive and Crazy Stupid Love (which he also got a nomination for), and this just proves that Gosling is all over this awards season, yet probably won’t be nominated for an Oscar.
- Viggo Mortensen for Best Supporting Actor. A Dangerous Method is another film that’s been ignored by the awards groups so far. If anything, I would’ve thought that the film’s leading lady, Keira Knightley, would have been recognized by the Globes, rather than the less-famous Mortensen in the already packed supporting category.
- No Melissa McCarthy. I thought that this was the one awards group that would definitely recognize McCarthy, but she was completely snubbed in the Best Supporting Actress category (but somehow got a SAG and Critics Choice nomination!) I still think she’ll be nominated for an Oscar, but this definitely made the Best Supporting Actress race a little more complicated (which is fun).
- Both Carnage ladies in Comedy Actress. Maybe I should have seen this coming, since Winslet and Foster and both big stars, but I wasn’t expected them both to get in. Along with Theron, Wiig, and Williams, this is a really strong category.
Holy cow, it’s been a busy couple days in Oscarland. Since the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow (!), I figured I’d run down my predictions for the major film categories. DISCLAIMER: They will probably all be wrong.
Best Picture (Drama)
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Moneyball
War Horse
Alt: Hugo
Best Picture (Comedy)
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn
Young Adult
Alt: The Muppets
Best Actor (Drama)
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Alt: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Best Actor (Comedy)
Johnny Depp, The Rum Diary
Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Alt: Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
Best Actress (Drama)
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Alt: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Actress (Comedy)
Julia Roberts, Larry Crowne
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage
Alt: Cameron Diaz, Bad Teacher
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Alt: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Alt: Berenice Bejo, The Artist or Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
