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Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
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1. Midnight in Paris |
2. The Artist |
3. Young Adult |
4. 50/50 |
5. Bridesmaids |
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Woody Allen |
Michael Hazanavicius |
Diablo Cody |
Will Reiser |
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo |
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It’s Woody’s best since Vicky Christina, and literary-minded hits don’t come along every day. |
Surprising in some ways (considering its a silent film), but very likely. |
Cody won this category back in ’08, and as long as early reviews are accurate, she and Reitman have done it again. |
Audiences responded well to the mix of comedy and drama. Got a WGA nomination. |
Granted, this is a lot of comedies for one category, but the WGA went for this one, too. |
Other Possibilities: Margin Call, J. Edgar, Beginners
Best Adapted Screenplay
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1. Moneyball |
2. The Descendants |
3. The Help |
4. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
5. Hugo |
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Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin |
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash |
Tate Taylor |
Bridget O’Connor and Peter Strong |
John Logan |
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Aaron Sorkin had the magic touch with The Social Netowork, and he could score another homerun with Moneyball. |
Thoughtful character studies tend to do well, and Payne proved he had writing chops with Sideways. |
Popular book + successful movie = Oscar nomination, in many cases (Seabiscuit, Atonement) |
I’d expect sharp dialogue from this British spy thriller. Based on a successful book. |
Based on a rich, semi-illustrated kids novel. Successful film, got a WGA nomination. |
Other Possibilities: The Ides of March, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Previous Predictions
December: 1. Midnight in Paris, 2. The Artist, 3. Young Adult, 4. J. Edgar, 5. Margin Call
1. Moneyball, 2. The Descendants, 3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 5. The Help
October: 1. Midnight in Paris, 2. Young Adult, 3. J. Edgar, 4. The Artist, 5. Like Crazy
1. Moneyball, 2. The Descendants, 3. The Help, 4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. Octavia Spencer (The Help)
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Pros: People love The Help, and Spencer is a great comedic presence in a film that sometimes borders on being overly earnest. Aside from Viola Davis, she’s received the most praise. Cons: She’s not a big name, and comedic performances aren’t often hugely popular at the Oscars. Also: internal vote-splitting with cast-mates? |
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2. Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
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Pros: All of her support from the precursors came as a bit of surprise to me, but The Artist is poised to be the biggest Oscar hit of the year, so I probably should have seen it coming. Cons: Everything would suggest that she’ll be nominated, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see her miss out in the end, a la Mila Kunis last year. |
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3. Jessica Chastain (The Help)
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Pros: No other actor has had a bigger breakthrough year than Jessica Chastain. And the awards groups seem to have (predictably) honed in on The Help as the performance that they want to celebrate from her. Cons: Possible vote-splitting between Help ladies and/or other Chastain performances. |
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4. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
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Pros: It’s said to be a showy role, and critics have latched onto her transformative performance as a woman disguised as a man. As well, Close’s star-power will help bring more attention to the film. Got a Globe and a SAG nomination. Cons: The film itself isn’t getting rave reviews, or much attention. If Close misses out, could McTeer still get in? |
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5. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
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Pros: Woodley’s steadily been gaining buzz for playing Clooney’s wayward oldest daughter. She got a Critics’ Choice and a Golden Globe nom, and she’s been the winner with a few critics groups, including the NBR. Cons: She missed out on the SAG, which really is a blow to her chances. The same thing happened to Andrew Garfield last year. Is this more of a “liked” performance than an “Oscar” performance? |
Other Possibilities
6. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
7. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
8. Carey Mulligan (Shame)
9. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
+ denotes nomination/win for another performance or combination of performances
Past Predictions
December: 1. Spencer, 2. Bejo, 3. Chastain (The Help), 4. Woodley, 5. McTeer
November: 1. Spencer, 2. Woodley, 3. Bullock, 4. Redgrave, 5. Chastain (The Help)
October: 1. Spencer, 2. Bullock, 3. Woodley, 4. Chastain (The Help), 5. Mulligan
September: Bullock, Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Woodley
August: Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Spencer, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)
July: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)
June: Davis (The Help), Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Redgrave, Tomei (The Ides of March), Watson (War Horse)
May: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Redgrave, Watts, Winslet (Carnage)
March: Chastain (The Tree of Life), Mulligan (Shame), Kristen Scott Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), Watson (War Horse), Wright (Moneyball)
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICTIONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography | Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
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Pros: Veteran actor who, despite his old age, has seen a recent resurgence in popularity. Earned raves for his performance as an ailing gay man. Hit all the big precursors. Cons: None. He’s in, and probably winning. |
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2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn)
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Pros: Vet actor who’s playing a real-life character (and a very colourful one at that). Co-star Williams is generating buzz. Could be something of a “welcome back” nomination for him. He hit the big precursors. Cons: Though the film received decent reviews, it didn’t get raves. Doesn’t seem to be a box office hit. |
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3. Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
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Pros: As his character would claim, it’s hard to argue with the stats. Hill got a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nod, and that combo has an excellent batting average. (I’m making myself groan with these analogies.) Cons: His odds are great, but the only possibility is that the Academy won’t take him seriously enough to nominate him. Perhaps The Sitter left a bad taste in voters’ mouths (if any of them saw it). |
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4. Albert Brooks (Drive)
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Pros: Drive was met with mixed reactions, but buzz about Brooks’ chances at an Oscar nomination refuses to die down. He’s been the frontrunner early in awards season. Cons: He missed out on the SAG nominations, and while I don’t think that’s nearly enough to kill his chances at being nominated, it almost guarantees that he won’t win the Oscar. |
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5. Nick Nolte (Warrior)
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Pros: His buzz has refused to die down. He’s been nominated by the BFCA and SAG, and in the past three years, Mila Kunis and Robert Duvall were the only actors to achieve that and then be snubbed by the Academy. Cons: This would be the film’s only nomination, and that can occasionally cause contenders to fall by the wayside (see: Duvall). He did also miss the Golden Globe nom. |
Other Possibilities
6. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
7. Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
8. Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
9. Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
10. Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
11. John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
Past Predictions
December: 1. Plummer, 2. Branagh, 3. Brooks, 4. Hill, 5. Nolte
November: 1. Plummer, 2. Brooks, 3. Branagh, 4. Von Sydow, 5. Hammer
October: 1. Plummer, 2. Mortensen, 3. Von Sydow, 4. Branagh, 5. Hammer
September: Branagh, Brooks, Hammer, Hawkes, Plummer
August: Branagh, Brooks, Hawkes, Hoffman (The Ides of March), Mortensen
July: Branagh, Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen, Waltz
June: Branagh, Hammer, Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen
May: Branagh, Fiennes (Coriolanus), Hawkes, Hoffman (IoM), Mortensen
March: Giamatti (The Ides of March), Hoffman (Moneyball), Mortensen, Penn, Plummer
Last Updated: January 22, 2012 (FINAL PREDICITONS)
Red = virtually guaranteed a nomination
Orange = good chance of nomination
Yellow = a strong contender
Green = in the mix
Blue = don’t count them out yet
Oscar Predictions Home | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Cinematography and Art Direction | Costumes | Makeup
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1. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
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Pros: She’s Meryl Streep. Seriously. Cons: None. She’s getting nominated, and has a good chance at winning. |
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2. Viola Davis (The Help)
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Pros: Her movie was a feel-good hit, and critics seemed to almost universally agree that Davis was the strongest member of great cast. Cons: Her performance may have been too low-key to stick with voters. But I doubt it. |
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3. Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
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Pros: Williams is coming off a nomination just last year, and this is the kind of glitzy biopic that can do very well at the Oscars. If the Academy really goes for this movie, Williams could even have a shot at winning. Cons: Unless the film really doesn’t agree with the Academy (which I doubt), she’s in. |
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4. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
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Pros: She’s a previous winner in a meaty role, and many felt that she has been snubbed the past couple of years. She secured BFCA and SAG nominations, which almost always = Oscar nomination. Cons: It’s a small film, and that has worked against Swinton in the past couple years (that said, she did not have the pre-cursor support in previous years). |
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5. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
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Pros: Close is a five-time loser at the Oscars. That’s hard to compete with. So far, she’s been getting raves for this performance. She got a SAG nomination. Cons: Aside from the SAG nom, she’s been strangely absent this awards season. Her film wasn’t universally loved. |
Other Possibilities
6. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
7. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
8. Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
9. Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Awards Tracker
HFPA = Golden Globes | SAG = Screen Actors Guild | BFCA = Critics’ Choice Awards | ISA = Independent Spirit Awards | IPA = International Press Academy (Satellite Awards) | NBR = National Board of Review | HFA = Hollywood Film Awards | NSFC = National Society of Film Critics | BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
(Red asterisk denotes win)
+ denotes nomination/win in the Supporting Actress category
Past Predictions
December: 1. Streep, 2. Davis, 2. Williams, 4. Swinton, 5. Close
November: 1. Davis, 2. Streep, 3. Close, 4. Olsen, 5. Williams
September: 1. Davis, 2. Streep, 3. Close, 4. Olsen, 5. Swinton
August: Close, Jones, Olsen, Streep, Swinton
July: Close, Jones, Olsen, Streep, Swinton
June: Close, Jones, Olsen, Streep, Williams
May: Close, Dunst, Olsen, Streep, Swinton
March: Close, Jones, Streep, Swinton, Theron
